May 15, 2018

On May 8, President Donald Trump ended U.S. participation in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal. On the same day, the U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a detailed list of additional sanctions which it plans to impose on Iran within 90 to 180 days. The U.S. State, Treasury, and Energy departments will oversee the implementation of the new measures. The U.S. Department of Defense will monitor Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for Shia militias in the region.

“To implement the President’s direction, the Departments of State and Treasury will take all steps necessary to establish a 90-day and a 180-day wind-down period for activities involving Iran that were consistent with the U.S. sanctions relief provided for under the JCPOA,” the statement by the U.S. Treasury said.

The statement added that after the 90-day wind-down period ends on August 6, 2018, the U.S. government would reimpose the following sanctions that were lifted under the JCPOA:

۱-Sanctions on the purchase or acquisition of U.S. dollar banknotes by the Government of Iran; Issued on May 8, 2018

۲-Sanctions on Iran’s trade in gold or precious metals;

۳-Sanctions on the direct or indirect sale, supply, or transfer to or from Iran of graphite, raw, or semi-finished metals such as aluminum and steel, coal, and software for integrating industrial processes;

۴-Sanctions on significant transactions related to the purchase or sale of Iranian rials, or the maintenance of significant funds or accounts outside the territory of Iran denominated in the Iranian rial;

۵-Sanctions on the purchase, subscription to, or facilitation of the issuance of Iranian sovereign debt;

۶-Sanctions on Iran’s automotive sector.

After the 90-day wind-down period the U.S. government will revoke the following JCPOA-related authorizations under U.S. primary sanctions regarding Iran:

۱-The import into the United States of Iranian-origin carpets and foodstuffs and certain related financial transactions pursuant to general licenses under the Iranian Transactions and Sanctions Regulations, 31 C.F.R. part 560 (ITSR);

۲-Activities undertaken pursuant to specific licenses issued in connection with the Statement of Licensing Policy for Activities Related to the Export or Re-export to Iran of Commercial Passenger Aircraft and Related Parts and Services (JCPOA SLP);

۳-Activities undertaken pursuant to General License I relating to contingent contracts for activities eligible for authorization under the JCPOA SLP.

During an open session of the Majlis (Iranian Parliament) on May 9, many deputies including the chairman of the nuclear energy committee, Mojtaba Zonnour, set fire to an American flag in a symbolic act of defiance. The Majlis also passed the double-urgency “appropriate and proportionate measures” bill which calls on the government to respond “decisively” to the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA.

The bill states: “The government can restart the centrifuges if the European countries refuse to provide guarantees or break the JCPOA agreement.”

“There are three parts to the bill. The government must obtain comprehensive and ironclad guarantees from the Europeans and the 5+1 countries (China, Russia, Britain, France, and Germany) excluding the U.S.,” Mr. Zonnour said. “We’ll order the government to start enriching uranium to 190,000 separative work units (SWU) capacity. The double-urgency bill obligates the government to take immediate action if the Europeans fail to keep their end of the bargain.”

It is unclear what Zonnour means by “immediate action.” This is not an entirely new bill. In 2016, Zonnour said that the country must increase the uranium enrichment from 3.5 to 20 percent if the JCPOA agreement were to fall apart. The bill, however, doesn’t address the country’s economic difficulties.

Meanwhile, the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran has issued a statement reassuring the public that there won’t be any interruption to the country’s banking system. It said: “The Central Bank had taken many important and precautionary measures in anticipation of the possible U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA. The banks will be able to meet the country’s foreign currency requirement without any problem.”

If the Central Bank held enough foreign-exchange reserves to meet Iran’s financial needs, as it has claimed, then The U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA should not have caused so much panic in the country.

Grand Ayatollah Hossein Nouri Hamedani, a senior cleric, and a source of emulation in Qom said: “We shouldn’t let Britain and France trick us into believing that they’d stay in the JCPOA. They might be plotting against us. We must remain vigilant. We shouldn’t be too hopeful and optimistic about the intentions of these countries.”

The commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Mohammad Ali Jafari, said: “We must take the U.S. exit from the JCPOA as a good omen. It proves that they are mainly concerned about Iran’s missile capabilities and influence in the region. Their actions will not have an adverse impact on our national interest.”

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