Page 4 - (کیهان لندن - سال سى و دوم ـ شماره ۵۷ (دوره جديد

‫ﺻﻔﺤﻪ ‪ - Page 4 - 4‬ﺷﻤﺎﺭﻩ ‪57‬‬
‫ﺟﻤﻌﻪ ‪ 10‬ﺗﺎ ﭘﻨﺠﺸﻨﺒﻪ‪ 16‬ﺍﺭﺩﻳﺒﻬﺸﺖﻣﺎﻩ ‪1395‬ﺧﻮﺭﺷﻴﺪﻯ‬

‫ﺷﺎﻫﻴﻦ ﻓﺎﻃﻤﻰ ﺍﻣﺎ ﻣﻌﺘﻘﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﻃﺒﻘﺎﺗﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻓﻴﺮﻭﺯﻩ ﺍﻛﺒﺮﻳﺎﻥ ‪ -‬ﺣﺴﻦ ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦﻫﺎﻯ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻰ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺮﺯ ‪12‬‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﻓﻘﻴﺮﺗﺮ ﻭ ﺛﺮﻭﺗﻤﻨﺪﺍﻥ ﺛﺮﻭﺗﻤﻨﺪﺗﺮ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺳﻜﺎﻥ ﻗﻮﻩ ﻣﺠﺮﻳﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﺎﺭ ﺣﻞ‬
‫ﻭ ﻓﺼﻞ ﭘﺮﻭﻧﺪﻩ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‪ ،‬ﻫ ّﻢ ﻭ ﻏ ّﻢ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻧﻔﺮ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻓﺮﺍﺗﺮ ﻣﻰﺭﻭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻯ ﻭ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻬﻢ ﻧﺎﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻭ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻃﺒﻘﺎﺗﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻭ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪» :‬ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ‬ ‫ﺣﺴﻴﻦ ﺭﺍﻏﻔﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﺩ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﻭ ﻛﺎﺭﺷﻨﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻬﺎﺭ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﮔﺬﺍﺷﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﻏﻞ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻳﻚ ﻧﻔﺮ ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺩﺭ ﮔﻔﺖﻭﮔﻮ ﺑﺎ ﻭﺑﺴﺎﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪﺍﺵ ﻫﻢ ﺑﺪ ﻧﺒﻮﺩ؛ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺍﺯ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺳﺎﻋﺖ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻔﺘﻪ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻛﻨﺪ ﺷﺎﻏﻞ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﺍﺭﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﺭﺍ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﺗﻜﺎء ﻧﺪﺍﻧﺴﺘﻪ ﻭ‬ ‫‪ 40‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺁﺧﺮ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻣﺤﻤﻮﺩ‬
‫ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺷﺎﻏﻞ ﻛﺴﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪» :‬ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻯ ﺟﻤﻊﺁﻭﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 11.9‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ‪ 40‬ﺳﺎﻋﺖ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻔﺘﻪ ﻛﺎﺭﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ‪ ،‬ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻛﻞ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‬ ‫‪ 94‬ﺭﺳﻴﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﻣﺤﻞ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻰﺍﺵ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﺑﻠﻜﻪ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﮔﺮﻭﻩﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻣﺒﻨﻰ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻚﺭﻗﻤﻰ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﮔﺮﻭﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﺧﻴﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻯ‬
‫ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﻛﻨﺪ«‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻴﺮ ﻭ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﺎ ﺛﺮﻭﺗﻤﻨﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺸﻰ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﻧﺪ«‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻯ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺣﻔﻆ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻬﻢ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺍﺧﻴﺮ‪،‬‬
‫ﺗﺎﺯﻩﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻃﺒﻘﺎﺗﻰ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﻰﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺟﻴﻨﻰ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﻓﺎﻃﻤﻰ ﻧﺪﺍﺷﺘﻦ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻰ‬ ‫‪ 0.3650‬ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 92‬ﺑﻪ ‪ 0.3788‬ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺻﺤﻴﺢ ﻭ ﻓﺮﺍﻫﻢ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺭﺍﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﻏﻴﺮﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬ ‫‪ 93‬ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺗﻰ ﻧﺎﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻓﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺭﻳﺸﻪﺍﻯ ﻭ‬
‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ ﻃﺒﻘﺎﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 93‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺟﻴﻨﻰ ﻳﻚ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﮔﻴﺮﻯ‬
‫ﻣﻰﺩﺍﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﭘﺮﺍﻛﻨﺪﮔﻰ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺴﮕﺮﻯ ﺁﺫﺭ ﻣﺎﻩ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﻭ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺭﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺠﺶ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻧﺎﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻯ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻔﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺭﻳﻴﺲ ﭘﻴﺸﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﻰ‬
‫ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺍﻣﻮﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺗﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﻋﻼﻡ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺭﺯﺷﻰ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺻﻔﺮ ﻭ ﻳﻚ‬
‫»‪ 40‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻛﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﻣﻌﺎﻑ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﻫﺮ ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ ﻋﺪﺩ‬
‫ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻭ ‪ 20‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻧﺸﺎﻥﺩﻫﻨﺪﻩ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻧﺎﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﺗﺮ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﺯﻳﺮﺯﻣﻴﻨﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻫﺮﭼﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻔﺮ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻚﺗﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻧﺎﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻯ‬

‫ﻧﻤﻰﻛﻨﻨﺪ«‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺘﺮﻯ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ﻣﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺁﻳﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺟﻴﻨﻰ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺎﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‬
‫ﺭﻭﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﺯ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺗﻬﺮﺍ ِﻥ ﺭﻫﺎ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﺪ‬
‫ﻭ ﺑﻨﺪ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎ ﺣﺎﻻ ﺩﺭ ﺻﺪﺩ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺑﺮﺩﻥ ﺣﺠﻢ‬ ‫ﻳﺎﺯﺩﻫﻢ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ؟‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺷﺎﻫﻴﻦ ﻓﺎﻃﻤﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻥ ﺳﺎﻛﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﭘﺎﺭﻳﺲ ﻣﻌﺘﻘﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ‬
‫ﺟﻴﻨﻰ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻃﺒﻘﺎﺗﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﺭﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ »ﺑﺎ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ«‬
‫ﺍﻣﻴﺪﻭﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﮔﺸﺎﻳﺶﻫﺎﻯ ﺗﺎﺯﻩ‪ ،‬ﭼﺸﻢﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻢﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻋﻼﻡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﮔﻔﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ‬
‫ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ‬
‫ﻛﻨﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﻛﻢ ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﺴﺎﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻰﮔﻮﻳﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻘﺎﺗﻰ ﻫﻢ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺸﺎﻳﺶ ﻧﻪ ﻋﺎﻳﺪ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺟﻴﺐ‬
‫ﻋﺪﻩﺍﻯ ﺧﺎﺹ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺭﻓﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺒﻊ ﺁﻥ ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻭ ﺩﺭ ﮔﻔﺖﻭﮔﻮ ﺑﺎ ﻛﻴﻬﺎﻥ ﻟﻨﺪﻥ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪» :‬ﻣﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﺻﻠﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ‬
‫ﻃﺒﻘﺎﺗﻰ ﻫﻢ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺁﻣﺎﺭﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‬

‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺷﺎﻫﻴﻦ ﻓﺎﻃﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻃﺒﻘﺎﺗﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻌﻴﺖ ﺟﻮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩﻯ ﻣﺒﻬﻢ‬
‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 93‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ‬
‫ﺷﺎﻫﻴﻦ ﻓﺎﻃﻤﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﻣﻰﮔﻮﻳﺪ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﻓﺎﻃﻤﻰ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻯ ﺭﺍ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻗﻢ ‪ 40‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪﻯ ﺳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪ 40‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫»ﺍﮔﺮ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺒﺎﺩﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻣﻰﺩﺍﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺁﺧﺮ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺑﻪ ‪ 14.8‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻯ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪،‬‬ ‫»ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺟﻴﻨﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ «1393‬ﻣﻨﺘﺸﺮ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﭼﻨﺪﺍﻧﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ‬
‫ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﺥ‬ ‫ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 93‬ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺷﻮﺩ ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ ﻃﺒﻘﺎﺗﻰ ﻫﻢ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 93‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺩﻭ ﺩﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﺷﺎﻫﻴﻦ ﻓﺎﻃﻤﻰ ﻣﻌﺘﻘﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ »ﺁﻧﭽﻪ ﺑﻴﺶ‬ ‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﺭﺳﻤﻰ ﻗﺎﺋﻞ ﺷﺪ«‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎﻯ ﺗﺤﺖ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺻﺪﻯ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﻫﻤﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺳﻬﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺭﻛﻮﺩ‬ ‫‪ 1389‬ﺗﺎ ‪ 1393‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺍﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ‬
‫ﺳﻠﻄﻪ ﺳﭙﺎﻩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺤﺼﺎﺭ ﻋﺪﻩﺍﻯ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ‬ ‫‪ 10.6‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺭﺳﻴﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻨﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺑﺮ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﺭﺧﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﻣﻰﮔﻮﻳﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺎﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﻣﺤﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻯ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭﻯ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻰ ﻋﻤﻮﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭ ﻭ ﻧﻴﻢ ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻧﻔﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻤﻌﻴﺖ‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺧﻴﺮ ﺗﻌﻄﻴﻞ ﺷﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ ‪ 1390‬ﺗﺎ ‪ 1392‬ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺭﺍ ﺩﻩ ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﻋﻼﻡ ﻣﻰﻛﺮﺩ ﻭ ﭘﺲ‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻝ ‪ 10‬ﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﻭ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪93‬‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺗﺒﻊ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﻭ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 1393‬ﻛﺎﻫﺸﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﻭ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮﻯ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺬﺍﺷﺖ«‪.‬‬ ‫ﺷﺪ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻗﻢﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻋﻼﻡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺖ«‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ‬
‫ﻛﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻛﻢ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ‬

‫ﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺰ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺟﻴﻨﻰ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻃﺒﻘﺎﺗﻰ ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬

‫ﻛﺮﺩﻳﻢ ﻧﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺩﻫﺪ ﺑﻠﻜﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻯ ﺳﺎﻛﻦ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 1390‬ﺁﺭﻳﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻧﺪﻭﻧﺰﻯ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺨﺶ »ﻧﻈﺮ ﺷﻤﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻭﺭﻗﻰ ﺯﻧﺪﻩ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻰ‬
‫ﻛﻴﻬﺎﻥ ﻟﻨﺪﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺎ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﻣﺎﺟﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮﺗﺶ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪﻩ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻳﺎﺩﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﺁﺭﻳﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺧﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺍﺳﺖ« ﺳﺎﻳﺖ ﻛﻴﻬﺎﻥ ﻟﻨﺪﻥ‪ ،‬ﻛﻴﻬﺎﻥ ﺁﻧﻼﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺗﻤﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺟﺮﺍﻳﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻧﺴﻞ ﺗﺎﺯﻩ ﻣﻮﺝ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮﺕ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻴﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﻟﻴﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺠﺎ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺭﺳﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺷﺪ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺍﺷﺘﺮﺍﻙ ﻛﻴﻬﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺁﺭﻳﺎ ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﻭ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺑﺮﺍﺯ ﻣﻬﺮ ﻭ ﻋﻼﻗﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪ‪ ،‬ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺶ‬
‫ﺣﺎﻝ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﻧﺴﺨﻪ ﭘﻰ ﺩﻯ ﺍﻑ ﻛﻴﻬﺎﻥ ﻟﻨﺪﻥ‪ ،‬ﻫﺮ ﻫﻔﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻛﻴﻬﺎﻥ ﻟﻨﺪﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻓﺮﻣﺎﺗﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻳﺶ ﻓﺮﺳﺘﺎﺩﻩ ﺷﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻝ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎﻛﺎﺭﺗﺎ ﺑﻴﺎﻳﻴﺪ!‬
‫ﺑﺨﺸﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺎﺟﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮﺕ ﺁﺭﻳﺎ ﻭ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺩﻩﺍﺵ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﻟﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﭗ ﭘﻨﺎﻫﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺪﻭﻧﺰﻯ ﺑﭙﺮﺩﺍﺯﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻧﺪﻛﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻧﺠﺎ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺑﺨﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺿﻤﻨﺎﺁﺭﻳﺎﺍﺑﺮﺍﺯﻋﻼﻗﻪﻛﺮﺩﻣﺎﺟﺮﺍﻫﺎﻳﻰﺭﺍﻛﻪﺍﺯﺳﺮﮔﺬﺭﺍﻧﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﭘﻨﺎﻩﺟﻮﻳﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻤﭗ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺯﺑﺎﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺧﻮﺩﺵ ﺑﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﻰﻛﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻰﺧﻮﺍﻧﻴﺪ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﺧﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﻛﻴﻬﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺑﮕﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﻣﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺶ‬

‫ﻛﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﺏ ﺑﻮﺩﻡ‪ ،‬ﺗﻠﻔﻦ ﺯﻧﮓ ﺧﻮﺭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺳﺖ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻧﻤﻰﺩﻭﻧﻢ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﻓﻜﺮﻡ ﭘﻴﺶ ﭘﻮﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺎﺩﺭﺷﻪ‬ ‫ﻗﺒﻼ ﺷﺐﻫﺎ ﺗﻮ ﻣﺤﻮﻃﻪ ﻣﻰﺩﻭﻳﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺕﻫﺎ ﺗﻜﻴﻪ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻣﺎﺩﺭﺵ‬ ‫ﺑﺨﺶ ﭘﻨﺠﺎﻩ ﻭ ﻫﻔﺘﻢ‪:‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﻌﺠﺐ ﺩﻳﺪﻡ ﭘﺮﻭﻳﺰ ﺩﻭﺳﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺠﺎ ﮔﻴﺮ ﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﻧﺲ ﺑﺪ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻧﻜﻨﻪ ﺣﻮﺍﺳﺸﻮ ﺑﻪ ﺑﭽﻪ ﻧﺪﻩ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻳﻪ ﺷﺐ ﺣﻴﻦ ﺩﻭﻳﺪﻥ ﭘﺎﻡ ﺑﻪ ﭼﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﺎﺭﺵ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺣﻮﺍﺳﺶ ﺑﻪ ﭘﻮﺭﻳﺎ‬
‫ﭘﺸﺖ ﺧﻄﻪ ﺳﺮﻳﻊ ﺍﺯ ﺟﺎ ﭘﺮﻳﺪﻡ ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻢ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻮﻯ‬ ‫ﻧﻮﺷﺘﻦ ﺭﻭ ﻗﻄﻊ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻢ ﻭ ﻣﻴﺮﻡ‬ ‫ﻓﻨﺮﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪﻯ ﺑﺮ ﺧﻮﺭﺩ ﺧﻮﺏ ﻧﮕﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻧﺒﻮﺩ ﻫﻤﻴﺸﻪ ﺑﻬﺶ ﻣﻴﮕﻢ ﻣﻮﺍﻇﺐ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺍﺣﻮﺍﻟﭙﺮﺳﻰ ﮔﻔﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺪﺑﺨﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻪ ﭘﺎﭼﻪ ﻫﻢ ﻓﺮﺍﺭﻯ ﻫﺴﺘﻢ ﻭﻗﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺶ ﺗﺬﻛﺮ ﺑﺪﻡ ﻛﻪ ﺣﻮﺍﺳﺶ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺩﻡ ﺩﻳﺪﻡ ﻣﺎﺭ ﻛﺒﺮﺍ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺧﺪﺍ ﺑﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﭘﻮﺭﻳﺎ ﺑﺎﺵ ﭼﻮﻥ ﻳﻪ ﺑﺎﺭ ﻗﺒﻼ ﻣﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻳﻢ ﻛﺮﻳﺴﻤﺲ ﮔﻔﺘﻢ ﺧﻮﺵ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺵ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻣﺎﻏﻢ ﺧﻮﺭﺩ ﻓﺮﺍﺭ ﻛﺮﺩﻡ‬ ‫ﺭﺣﻢ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺍﻭﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺩﻳﮕﻪ ﺭﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﻧﻴﺸﺶ ﺯﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺧﺪﺍ ﺑﻬﺶ ﺭﺣﻢ‬ ‫ﺁﺳﺎﻳﺶ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﻳﻢ‬
‫ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺮ ﭘﻴﻨﻜﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺪﻭﻧﺰﻯ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻫﻤﺴﺮﻡ ﻛﻪ ﻛﻠﻪ ﭘﺎﭼﻪ ﺩﻭﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﭘﻮﺭﻳﺎ ﺑﺎﺷﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺪﻭﻡ‪ .‬ﻣﺜﻼ ﺍﻻﻥ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﻡ ﻣﻰﻧﻮﻳﺴﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻬﺶ ﻣﻴﮕﻢ ﻣﺨﺼﻮﺻﺎ‬
‫ﺭﺍﺣﺖ ﺷﺪﻯ ﮔﻔﺖ ﺍﻳﻨﺠﺎ ﻫﻢ ﺑﻼ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﺧﻮﺭﺩﺵ‪ .‬ﺁﺥ ﻛﻪ ﺣﺎﻟﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﺩﻳﺮﻭﺯ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﻧﻢﻫﺎ ﻛﻠﻪ ﭘﺎﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺍﻇﺒﺶ ﺑﺎﺵ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺎﻧﺲ ﺑﺪ ﺍﻳﻨﺠﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻳﺮﻭﺯ ﺗﻮ ﻣﺤﻮﻃﻪ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﺎﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩﻡ‬
‫ﺗﻜﻠﻴﻒ ﻫﺴﺘﻴﻢ ﻭ ﺛﺒﺖ ﻧﺎﻡ ﻧﺸﺪﻳﻢ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺨﻮﺭﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﻠﻪ ﭘﺎﭼﻪ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻨﻮ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻭﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﭘﺮ ﻣﺎﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﻧﻤﻰﺩﻭﻧﻢ‬ ‫ﭘﻮﺭﻳﺎ ﺗﻜﻴﻪ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺕﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻴﮕﻦ ﻣﺎ ﺭﻭ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻰﮔﺮﺩﻭﻧﻨﺪ ﻣﺎﻟﺰﻯ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻳﺎﺩ ﻏﺬﺍﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥﻫﺎﻯ ﻏﺎﺭﻧﺸﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﭼﺮﺍ ﺧﻴﻠﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﻧﻢﻫﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﺪﺟﻮﺭ ﺣﻮﺍﺳﻢ ﺑﻬﺶ ﻫﺴﺖ ﺳﺮﺵ‬
‫ﺻﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻴﺴﺖ ﻧﻔﺮ ﻣﺠﺮﺩ ﻭ ﻫﺸﺘﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺑﻰ ﺧﻴﺎﻟﻨﺪ ﻭﻗﺘﻰ ﺑﻬﺸﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺩﻡ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺕﻫﺎ ﺗﻜﻴﻪ ﻧﺪﻩ ﻭ‬
‫ﻧﻔﺮ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﻨﺪﺍﺯﻩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻴﮕﻰ ﭼﺮﺍ ﺣﻮﺍﺳﺘﻮ ﺟﻤﻊ ﻧﻤﻰﻛﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﭘﻮﺭﻳﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻣﻦ ﭘﺮﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﻳﺪﻡ ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻫﻔﺘﻢ ﻣﺎﻩ ﻣﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻨﺠﺎ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﻀﻰ ﻭﻗﺘﻬﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﮕﻦ ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻰ ﻧﻴﻔﺘﺎﺩﻩ ﭼﻘﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﭘﺮﻳﺪﻥ ﭘﻮﺭﻳﺎ ﺧﺶ ﺧﺶ ﺑﺮگﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩﻯ ﺍﻓﻐﺎﻧﻰ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺍﻗﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻘﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﺩﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻓﻜﺮ ﺭﻓﺘﻦ ﺑﺎ ﻟﻨﺞ ﻣﻰﺍﻓﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﻧﻖ ﻣﻴﺰﻧﻰ! ﻭﺍﻗﻌﺎ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺑﻴﻔﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻫﻢ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﺷﺪ ﺍﻭﻝ ﻓﻜﺮ ﻛﺮﺩﻡ ﮔﺮﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻭﻗﺘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺯﻧﮓ ﻣﻴﺰﻧﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺑﭽﻪﻫﺎ ﺗﻮ‬ ‫ﺗﺎ ﻣﺘﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﺸﻦ‪ ،‬ﻣﻴﮕﻢ ﺍﮔﻪ ﻣﺎﺭ ﻛﺒﺮﺍ‬ ‫ﻳﺎ ﻣﻮﺷﻰ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺮﺳﻴﺪﻩ ﺳﺮﻳﻊ‬
‫ﺟﺪﺍﻣﻮﻥ ﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺴﺎﺭﻭﺍ ﻭ ﺑﻨﺪﻩ ﺧﺪﺍﻫﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻧﻴﺶ ﺑﺰﻧﻪ ﺗﺎ ﺑﻴﻤﺎﺭﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻧﻤﻴﺮﺳﻪ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺩﻣﻮ ﺭﺳﻮﻧﺪﻡ ﺑﻪ ﭘﻮﺭﻳﺎ ﻭ ﺧﻮﺏ ﻧﮕﺎﻩ‬
‫ﺣﻴﻦ ﺻﺤﺒﺖ ﺗﻠﻔﻦ ﻗﻄﻊ ﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﻭ ﻧﻴﻢ ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﻛﻴﺲﻫﺎﺷﻮﻥ ﺟﻤﻊ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻫﺮ ﻭﻗﺖ ﭘﻮﺭﻳﺎ ﻳﺎ ﺑﭽﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺩﻡ ﺩﻳﺪﻡ ﻣﺎﺭ ﻛﺒﺮﺍ ﺑﺰﺭﮔﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ‬
‫ﻓﻜﺮ ﻛﻨﻢ ﺷﺎﺭژﺵ ﺗﻤﻮﻡ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻠﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺪﻩ ﺧﻮﺩﺑﺨﻮﺩ ﺧﻮﺍﺑﻢ ﻣﻴﮕﻴﺮﻩ ﺗﺎﺯﻩ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻧﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺪﺭ ﻭ ﻣﺎﺩﺭﺷﻮﻥ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﻳﻚ ﻣﺘﺮ ﻭ ﻧﻴﻢ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺧﺪﺍ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻡ ﺭﻓﺘﻢ ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻥ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻝ ﭘﻮﺭﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻫﺎ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺖ ﭘﻴﻨﻜﺎﻥ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺸﻮﻥ ﮔﻴﺮ ﻣﻴﺪﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻗﻌﺎ ﺁﺭﺍﻣﺶ ﺭﻭ‬ ‫ﭘﻮﺭﻳﺎ ﺭﺣﻢ ﻛﺮﺩ ﺩﺭﺳﺖ ﭘﺸﺖ ﺳﺮﺵ‬
‫ﭼﺸﻤﻢ ﺑﻪ ﭘﻮﺭﻳﺎ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﻯ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﺒﻴﻨﻢ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﺭ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎﻣﻮﺋﻞ ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺯﻡ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻨﺪ ﭼﻮﻥ ﺍﮔﻪ ﺧﺪﺍﻯ ﻧﺎﻛﺮﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺩ ﺟﺎﻳﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﺭﺕﻫﺎ ﺗﻜﻴﻪ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ‬
‫ﮔﺮﻣﺎ ﺑﺎ ﭼﻪ ﺟﺪﻳﺘﻰ ﺗﻼﺵ ﻣﻰﻛﺮﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺳﺘﺎﻥﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﺩﺍﺭﻳﻢ‪ .‬ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﻫﻢ ﺯﻧﮓ‬ ‫ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺑﭽﻪﻫﺎ ﺭﻭ ﻣﺎﺭ ﺑﺰﻧﻪ ﻏﻴﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻭﻗﺘﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺳﺮ ﭘﻮﺭﻳﺎ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺯﺩﻡ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﺩﻛﻨﻜﺶ ﺭﻭ ﻫﻮﺍ ﺑﻔﺮﺳﺘﻪ ﺍﻳﻨﻘﺪﺭ‬ ‫ﻧﺰﺩﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻄﻤﺌﻦ ﺷﺪﻡ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺟﺒﺮﺍﻧﻪ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﭗ ﻣﺠﺮﺩﻫﺎ ﻫﻢ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺟﺎ ﺧﻮﺭﺩﻥ ﻭ ﭘﺮﻳﺪﻥ ﭘﻮﺭﻳﺎ‬
‫ﭘﻴﻠﻪ ﻛﺮﺩ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎﺩﻛﻨﻜﺶ ﻫﻮﺍ ﺭﻓﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺁﻗﺎ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺟﻤﻊ ﻣﻴﻜﻨﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺭ ﺧﻮﺍﺏ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺭﻭﺯ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺩﻭ‬
‫ﺗﺎ ﻣﺎﺭ ﻛﺸﺘﻪ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﻭ ﻫﺮﭼﻰ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺭ ﺗﺮﺳﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻣﺎ ﻣﺘﻮﺟﻪ ﻣﺎﺭ ﺷﺪﻳﻢ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺮﻛﺘﺶ ﺑﺮﺍﻡ ﺧﻴﻠﻰ ﺁﻣﻮﺯﻧﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺁﺧﻮﻧﺪﻫﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻻﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻴﻢ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﭼﻨﺪ ﻭﻗﺘﻪ ﻣﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ ﻫﺮ‬
‫*ﻣﻮﺭﺕ ﻳﺎ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺯ ﮔﻴﺎﻫﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﭼﻘﺪﺭ ﺗﻼﺵ ﻛﺮﺩﻳﻢ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻟﻨﺞ‬ ‫ﭼﻨﺪ ﺭﻭﺯ‪ ،‬ﻳﻚ ﻳﺎ ﺩﻭﺗﺎ ﺑﭽﻪ ﻛﺒﺮﺍ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻳﻢ ﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻧﮕﺎﺭ ﺷﺎﻧﺲ ﻣﺎ ﺭﻭ ﺑﺎ ﭼﻬﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻧﺪﺍﺭﻩ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻰﻛﺸﻴﻢ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻟﺤﻈﻪﺍﻯ ﻛﻪ ﭘﻮﺭﻳﺎ‬
‫ﮔﺮﻣﺴﻴﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺦ ﺑﻪ ﺯﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﻮﺑﻴﺪﻥ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯ ﺻﺒﺢ‬
‫ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪...‬‬