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‫آﺧﺮﯾﻦ وﯾﺪﺋﻮﻫﺎی ﺧﱪی در ﻟﻨﺰ اﯾﺮان‬                                             ‫‪KAYHAN LONDON ONLINE‬‬

   ‫‪www.lenziran.com‬‬                                                                                                                                                    ‫ﺷﻤﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺁﮔﻬﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻴﻬﺎﻥ ﻓﻘﻂ‬
                                                                                                                                                                    ‫ﺍﻃﻼﻉﺭﺳﺎﻧﻰ ﻭ ﻛﺴﺐ ﻭ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺧﻮﺩ‬
                                      ‫‪Page 16‬‬  ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﺳﻰ ﻭ ﺩﻭﻡ )ﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ( ـ ﺷﻤﺎﺭﻩ ‪ 43‬ـ ﺟﻤﻌﻪ ‪ 2‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦﻣﺎﻩ ‪ 1394‬ﺧﻮﺭﺷﻴﺪﻯ‬                                       ‫ﺻﻔﺤﻪ ‪16‬‬    ‫ﺭﺍ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﻰ ﻧﻤﻰﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﺑﻠﻜﻪ ﻳﻚ ﻛﺎﺭ‬
                                                                                                                                                                     ‫ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮕﻰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﻴﺪ‪:‬‬
                                                                          ‫‪ 11‬ﺭﺑﻴﻊﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻰ‪ 1437‬ﻗﻤﺮﻯ ـ ‪ 22‬ژﺍﻧﻮﻳﻪ ‪ 2016‬ﻣﻴﻼﺩﻯ‬
                                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﻛﻴﻬـﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻛﻴﻬـﺎ ِﻥ ﻟﻨـﺪﻥ‪ ،‬ﻛﻴﻬـﺎ ِﻥ‬
                                                  ‫‪No.43 Friday 22 January 2016‬‬                                                                                    ‫ﺧﻮﺩﺗـﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺯﻧـﺪﻩ ﻧـﮕﺎﻩ ﻣﻰﺩﺍﺭﻳـﺪ‬
                                                  ‫‪P.O. Box 435,Old Brompton Road 2,London, SW7 3DQ‬‬
                                                  ‫‪Tel: +(44)-(0)20 3633 3684 Fax: +(44)-(0)20 3633 3685‬‬                                                           ‫‪www.kayhan.london‬‬
                                                  ‫‪e-mail: [email protected] - www.kayhanlondon.london‬‬                                                        ‫‪[email protected]‬‬

‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﺨﺶ ﭘﺮﺳﺶ ﻭ ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﻠﺴﻪ ﺍﺯ‬                    ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺁﺯﻣﺎﻳﺶ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ‪:‬‬                                                                                               ‫ﺑﻴﮋﻥ ﻓﺮﻫﻮﺩﻯ ‪ -‬ﺭﻭﺯ ﺳﻪﺷﻨﺒﻪ ‪19‬‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﺩﺭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ‬                                                                                                                                                             ‫ژﺍﻧﻮﻳﻪ ﻣﻮﺳﺴﻪ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺸﻰ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻣﺎﻫﻴﺖ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻟﻄﻒ‬    ‫ﻧﺸﺎﻧﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻮﻓﻘﻴﺖ ﻭ ﺷﻜﺴﺖ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬                                                                                                                ‫ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ‪ IISS‬ﻣﻴﺰﺑﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻡ ﻭ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﻯ ﺩﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺣﻞ‬                                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﮔﺮﻯ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﻣﺸﺎﻭﺭ ﭘﻴﺸﻴﻦ ﭘﺮﺯﻳﺪﻧﺖ‬
‫ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺍﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻮﺭﻳﻪ ﻳﺎ ﻳﻤﻦ‬      ‫ﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺳﻘﻮﻁ‬                ‫ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺷﺎﻫﺪ ﺭﻭﺯ‬      ‫ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﻙ ﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺩﺭ‬       ‫ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻰ ﻭ ﻓﺸﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺷﺪﻩ‬           ‫ﺑﺎﺭﺍﻙ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻣﻮﺭ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﻭ ﻣﺪﻳﺮ‬
‫ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﺗﺎﻛﻴﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ‬                            ‫ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻡ‬                      ‫ﺁﺯﻣﺎﻳﺶ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﺎﺷﻴﻢ‪.‬‬       ‫ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﺟﻠﻮﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺘﻴﺎﺑﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ‬    ‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺁﻥ ﻛﻨﺎﺭ ﺑﻴﺎﻳﺪ ﻭ‬    ‫ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩﻫﺎﺭﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺑﻮﺩ‬
‫ﻫﻴﭻ ﻧﺸﺎﻧﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﻯ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﺩﺭ‬                                                                                ‫ﺳﻼﺡ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﻰ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪.‬‬       ‫ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰﺍﺵ‬        ‫ﻛﻪ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ »ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻧﻤﻰﺑﻴﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﻯ‬    ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺳﺨﻨﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﺧﻮﺩ‬              ‫ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‬            ‫ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﻣﻌﺘﻘﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﺻﻠﻰ‬         ‫ﻛﺎﻣﻼ ﻧﺎﺩﻳﺪﻩ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﻋﻼﻭﻩ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺭ‬      ‫ﻭ ﺁﺯﻣﺎﻳﺶ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ« ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ‬    ‫ﺍﺯ ‪ 3‬ﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﻳﺎﺩ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ‬                                             ‫ﻋﺪﻡ ﻣﻮﻓﻘﻴﺖ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ‬      ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺗﻰ ﺑﺮﮔﺰﺍﺭ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﻭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺋﺘﻼﻑ‬        ‫ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻘﻮﻁ ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻡ ﻣﻨﺘﻬﻰ‬      ‫ﮔﺮﻯ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‬         ‫ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻭ‬       ‫»ﻧﻴﻤﻪ ﺁﺯﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺪﻯ ﻣﻨﺼﻔﺎﻧﻪ« ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬                      ‫ﺳﺨﻨﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺣﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﻳﻞ ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ‬     ‫ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ‬            ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻗﺖ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻧﻈﺮ‬   ‫ﻣﺠﺒﻮﺭ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻦ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﺍﻣﺘﻴﺎﺯ ﺩﺭ‬     ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﺁﻧﮕﺎﻩ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩﻫﺎﻯ‬          ‫ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﺨﻨﺮﺍﻧﻰ ‪ 25‬ﺩﻗﻴﻘﻪﺍﻯ‬
‫ﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﭼﻴﺰﻯ ﺟﺰ ﻳﺎﻭﻩﮔﻮﻳﻰ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪.‬‬           ‫ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻩ ﻧﻮﺍﻣﺒﺮ ﺑﺮﮔﺰﺍﺭ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‬     ‫ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺍﻇﻬﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ‬       ‫ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯﺍﺵ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎﻭﻣﺖ‬     ‫ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺩﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺳﻼﺡ‬         ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺍﻯ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺩﻭ ﭼﺎﻟﺶ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﺑﻨﻴﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬     ‫ﻭ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯﺧﻮﺍﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺮﻧﺪﻩ‬       ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻫﻢ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺣﺠﺖﺍﻻﺳﻼﻡ ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻰ‬         ‫ﭼﻴﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺁﻥ ﻭ ﻛﻤﻚﻫﺎﻯ ﭘﻜﻦ‬         ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﺷﺎﺭﻩ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻭ ﮔﻔﺖ‪ :‬ﻣﻘﺎﻣﺎﺕ‬         ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻴﻦ‬     ‫ﺷﻮﺩ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎﻯ‬        ‫ﻭ ﻫﻢ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺁﻗﺎﻯ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ ﻋﻤﻴﻘﺎ ﻣﺎﻳﻞﺍﻧﺪ‬   ‫ﺑﻪ ﭘﻴﻮﻧﮓ ﻳﺎﻧﮓ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﭼﻴﻦ‬       ‫ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺻﺤﺒﺖ‬           ‫ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭﮔﻴﺮ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺩﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻰﺳﺎﺯﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻓﺰﻭﻥ‬        ‫ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻳﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺐ ﺭﺳﺎﻧﺪﻥ‬       ‫ﻛﻪ ﺷﺎﻫﺪ ﻣﻮﻓﻘﻴﺖ ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﻭ‬          ‫ﺍﺯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺭﻫﺒﺮ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺁﻥ ﻛﻴﻢ‬        ‫ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺻﺮﻳﺢ ﮔﻔﺘﻪﺍﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻦ‬       ‫ﻗﺒﺎﻝ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﻣﺴﺎﻟﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﻰ ﻳﻜﺴﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻳﻚ ﺭﺷﺘﻪ ﺗﻌﻬﺪﺍﺕ ﻭ‬        ‫ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺧﺸﻢ‬          ‫ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴﺘﻰ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮ‬          ‫ﺟﺎﻧﮓ ﺍﻭﻥ ﺩﻝ ﺧﻮﺷﻰ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬      ‫ﺳﻼﺡ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﺷﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ‬             ‫ﭘﻴﺶ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﺍﻣﺎ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪﺍﻯ ﺩﻳﺮﻳﻨﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺘﺤﺪﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺍﻯ‬      ‫ﺣﺎﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﺩ ﻭ‬   ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻟﻔﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ‬            ‫ﻣﻮﺷﻜﻰ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺍﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﻛﺮﻩ‬          ‫ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭﻯ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺣﻔﻆ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﻳﺖ‬
‫ﺧﻮﺩ ﻧﻈﻴﺮ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﻳﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﻋﺮﺑﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺳﻌﻮﺩﻯ‬       ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻛﻨﺎﺭ ﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩﻥ‬   ‫ﻏﻠﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻰﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻰ ﻭ‬    ‫ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻬﺪﻳﺪﻯ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ‬        ‫ﺧﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺗﻬﺪﻳﺪ ﺍﺯﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻧﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ‬               ‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩ‬       ‫ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻡ ﻫﻤﻮﺍﺭ ﺳﺎﺯﺩ‪ .‬ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﮔﻮﺷﺰﺩ‬         ‫ﺗﺎ ﺣﺪﻭﺩﻯ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ‪ ،‬ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬      ‫ﺧﻮﺩ ﻣﻰﺩﺍﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻰ ﺑﻴﻢ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ‬    ‫ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﻠﻜﻪ ژﺍﭘﻦ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻰ ﻭ ﺣﺘﻰ‬       ‫ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﻳﭙﻠﻤﺎﺳﻰ ﺳﺮﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﻚ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ‬   ‫ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺧﺎﻧﻢ ﻫﻴﻼﺭﻯ‬             ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ‬        ‫ﻓﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﺮ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻛﻪ‬      ‫ﭼﻴﻦ ﻣﻰﺩﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺎﻳﻰ‬        ‫ﻣﻮﻓﻖ ﺷﺪ ﺗﺎ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ‪ 13‬ﺳﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻫﻤﻪ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ‬         ‫ﻛﻠﻴﻨﺘﻮﻥ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻭﻯ ﺧﺎﻃﺮﻧﺸﺎﻥ‬        ‫ﺍﺯ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ‬      ‫ﺑﻘﺎﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﭘﻴﻮﻧﮓ ﻳﺎﻧﮓ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻬﺪﻳﺪ‬     ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺑﺎﺯﺩﺍﺷﺘﻦ ﻭ ﺩﻓﻊ‬    ‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﮔﻔﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻓﻜﺮ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ ﺟﺎﻥ ﻛﺮﻯ ﻭﺯﻳﺮ‬         ‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻳﺶ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺒﺎﻝ‬            ‫ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻻﻳﻞ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻤﻠﻪ‬       ‫ﻛﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﻪ ﻭ ﺑﻰ ﺛﺒﺎﺗﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺒﻪ‬                                               ‫ﺗﺤﺖ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺁژﺍﻧﺲ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﻫﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻣﻮﺭﺧﺎﺭﺟﻪ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺍﻣﻴﺪﻭﺍﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬        ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺳﻔﺖ ﻭ ﺳﺨﺖﺗﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬          ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﺑﺎﻗﻴﻤﺎﻧﺪﻩ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬  ‫ﺟﺰﻳﺮﻩ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻝ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‬                ‫ﻓﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬          ‫ﻭ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺭﺍﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﺳﺘﻴﺎﺑﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﻯ‬    ‫ﻭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻋﻼﻗﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺠﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ‬     ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎﻯ ﻏﻴﺮﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‬         ‫ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﻠﻰ ﺣﻴﺎﺗﻰ ﭼﻴﻦ ﻟﻄﻤﻪ‬       ‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﻘﻴﺪﻩ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﻣﺎ‬     ‫ﺑﻤﺐ ﺍﺗﻢ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ‪ 10‬ﺗﺎ ‪ 15‬ﺳﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺣﻞ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺱ‬          ‫ﺧﺎﻃﺮ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯﺍﺵ‬           ‫ﻭ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺮ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯ ﺑﺎﻧﻚﻫﺎ‬      ‫ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ‬     ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﭘﺮ ﺍﺑﻬﺎﻡ ﻭ ﭘﻴﭽﻴﺪﻩ‬   ‫ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﺴﺪﻭﺩ ﺳﺎﺯﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴﺎﻟﻪ‬
‫ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﺳﻮﺭﻳﻪ ﺑﺎﺯ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﻯ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩ‬    ‫ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺁﺯﻣﺎﻳﺶ ﻣﻮﺷﻚ ﻳﺎ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﺯ‬         ‫ﻭ ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎﻳﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ‬         ‫ﺧﻮﺩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﭼﻴﻦ ﺩﺭ‬     ‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﻣﻘﺎﻣﺎﺕ‬            ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﺭﺯﻯ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺻﺒﺮ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺩﻳﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺁﻳﺎ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬      ‫ﺣﺰﺏﺍﷲ ﺳﺨﻦ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻳﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﻣﻴﻢ‬        ‫ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺁﻣﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎﻳﻴﺎﻥ‬     ‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬  ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﻣﺎﻳﻞﺍﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﺑﻤﺐ‬       ‫ﺷﻜﺴﺖ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻯ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻬﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﻭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﻯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ‬       ‫ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﺎﺕ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺘﺤﺪﺍﻥ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺍﻯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬      ‫ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﮔﺸﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﺤﺘﺎﻁ‬   ‫ﺑﺨﺶ ﻣﻬﻤﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ ﭼﻴﻦ‬          ‫ﺍﺗﻢ ﺷﻮﺩ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺭﻳﺴﻚﻫﺎﻯ‬              ‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﭘﻴﻮﻧﮓ ﻳﺎﻧﮓ‬
‫ﭼﻮﻥ ﻋﺮﺑﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺳﻌﻮﺩﻯ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ‬             ‫ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻋﺮﺑﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﺳﻌﻮﺩﻯ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﻳﻴﻞ‬         ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻭ ﻣﻰﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺑﺪﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺁﻳﺎ‬                                             ‫ﺩﺳﺘﻴﺎﺑﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻼﺡ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﻙ‬           ‫ﺩﺭ ﭘﻴﺶ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻯ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ‬
‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺮﻭﺳﻪ ﺻﻠﺢ ﺳﻮﺭﻳﻪ‬                                                 ‫ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬                    ‫ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﻟﻄﻤﻪ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬    ‫ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ‬     ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺩﻭﮔﺎﻧﻪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻮ ﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﻩ‬
‫ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﻗﺮﺍﺭﻯ ﺁﺗﺶﺑﺲ‬                                      ‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬       ‫ﻋﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺧﻄﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻳﺎ ﺧﻴﺮ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ‬      ‫ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﮔﻔﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺳﺘﺎﻯ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ‬          ‫ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺣﻔﻆ ﺳﻼﺡ‬           ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻦ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺑﺮﺳﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﻣﻌﺘﻘﺪ‬      ‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻘﻮﻁ‬         ‫ﻋﻘﻴﺪﻩ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻘﻮﻁ ﺑﻬﺎﻯ‬      ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻓﺸﺎﺭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺘﺎ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺗﻬﺪﻳﺪ‬                                          ‫ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻓﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﻫﺪ‬       ‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻣﺪ ﺗﻘﻠﺐ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺗﺨﻠﻒ‬      ‫ﻧﻔﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﻭ ﺗﻼﺵ‬       ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ‬                   ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﻣﺘﻌﻬﺪ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪.‬‬         ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﻭ ﺗﻬﺪﻳﺪ ﺿﻤﻨﻰ ﻭ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﻗﻴﻤﺎﻧﺪﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺯﻣﺎﻣﺪﺍﺭﻯ‬     ‫ﺍﺯ ﻣﻔﺎﺩ ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻡ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻘﻴﺪﻩ‬     ‫ﺳﻌﻮﺩﻯﻫﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺟﻠﻮﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬         ‫ﻣﻌﺘﺒﺮﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺩﺭ‬       ‫ﺍﺯ ﺩﻳﺪﮔﺎﻩ ﮔﺮﻯ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺑﺰﺭگ‬
‫ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺩﺭ‬        ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺛﻤﺮﺍﺕ‬    ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺳﻬﻢ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ‬      ‫ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬      ‫ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺩﺭ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﻰ ﻭﺍﻛﻨﺶ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬                              ‫ﺗﻮﺳﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺯﻭﺭ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﺴﺎﻳﻞ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ‬        ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻡ ﺑﻬﺮﻩﻣﻨﺪ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ‬       ‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺴﺐ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻧﺒﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭ‬   ‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻄﻤﺌﻦ‬       ‫ﻭ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻯ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‬           ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺨﻨﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﺧﻮﺩ‬
‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺍﻋﺶ ﺑﻪ‬        ‫ﻧﻈﺮ ﻭﻯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ‪ 2‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‬           ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺸﻰ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻧﻔﺖ‬      ‫ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‬     ‫ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﻭ ﻛﺎﺭﺁﻳﻰ ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭﻫﺎﻯ‬  ‫ﺩﺭ ﺣﻀﻮﺭ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺭﺳﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﻯ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺑﭙﺮﺩﺍﺯﻧﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ‬       ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ‬       ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻓﺰﻭﻥ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ‬     ‫ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﺭﺍ‬                                                  ‫ﺧﺒﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﺩﻳﭙﻠﻤﺎﺕﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻣﺤﻘﻘﻴﻦ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍ‬
‫ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻧﻴﺰ‬    ‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﻘﻠﺐ ﻭ ﺗﺨﻠﻒ‬      ‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺳﺘﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬   ‫ﻣﻨﻬﺪﻡ ﺳﺎﺯﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻭ ﻣﺘﺤﺪﺍﻧﺶ ﺩﺭ‬                         ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬       ‫ﺑﻪ ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺑﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻛﺎﺭﻯ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ‬     ‫ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻡ ﺑﺒﻴﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﺐ ﺭﺩﻳﺎﺑﻰ‬  ‫ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻥ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺍﻳﻦ‬      ‫ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴﺘﻰ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺗﻼﻓﻰ ﺟﻮﻳﻰ‬      ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺎﻃﺮ ﺍﺗﻜﺎﻯ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‬   ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺍﺷﺎﺭﻩ ﻛﺮﺩ‬
                                      ‫ﺷﻮﺩ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺘﺎ‬     ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺎﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﻪ‬     ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮﻩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ‬  ‫ﺑﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎﻯ ﻧﻔﺘﻰ ﻭ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺘﺮﺳﻰ‬      ‫ﻭ ‪ 3‬ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺧﺎﺹ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﺑﺮﺷﻤﺮﺩ‪:‬‬
                  ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺣﻔﻆ ﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬                                            ‫ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻰﻫﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺑﺎﺯ ﻧﮕﺎﻩ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻦ‬  ‫ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻛﺎﻣﻼ ﻓﺮﻕ‬       ‫ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ‬    ‫ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬
                                          ‫ﺳﻘﻮﻁ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺩ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺠﺎﻣﺪ‪.‬‬     ‫ﺭﺍﻩ ﺩﺳﺘﻴﺎﺑﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻣﺘﻴﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬       ‫ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻄﻤﺌﻦ ﻧﺒﻮﺩﻳﻢ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﻫﻤﻪ‬      ‫ﻓﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺁﺳﻴﺐﭘﺬﻳﺮ‬           ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺟﺎ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩﻩﺍﻯ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ‬
 ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬            ‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺁﻥ‬       ‫ﺳﻌﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻓﻌﻼ ﺑﻪ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﻯ‬        ‫ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯﺍﺵ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻰﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻴﻢ ﻭ‬        ‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻝ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬         ‫ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 2003‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻡ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ‬
                                      ‫ﺁﺳﻴﺐ ﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺑﺮﻭﺯ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ‬      ‫ﺍﺯ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﺷﺪﻩ‬     ‫ﺗﺎﺯﻩ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺣﻤﻠﻪ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﺑﺨﺸﻰ‬     ‫ﺍﺳﺎﺳﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﺑﺎﺯﺭﮔﺎﻧﻰ‬      ‫ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺟﺮﺝ ﺩﺑﻠﻴﻮ ﺑﻮﺵ ﺁﺯﻣﺎﻳﺶ‬
‫ﻫﻴﭻ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﺭﺳﻤﻰﺍﺯ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻳﻰ‬     ‫ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﻰ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‬                                            ‫ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺎﻳﻰ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯﺍﺵ ﻗﺴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﻭﺩ‪.‬‬                                            ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﻮﺍﺩ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺗﺎ ﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬          ‫ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺑﺮﻭﺯ ﻳﻚ ﺣﺎﺩﺛﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ‬            ‫ﺑﺮ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺩﻫﻨﺪ‪.‬‬    ‫ﺍﻓﺰﻭﻥ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺎﻳﻰ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬            ‫ﻭ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ ﺑﻰ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬       ‫ﻻﺯﻡ ﭼﻪ ﭘﻠﻮﺗﻮﻧﻴﻮﻡ ﻭ ﭼﻪ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻧﻴﻮﻡ ﻏﻨﻰ‬
‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯﺍﺵ ﻣﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬        ‫ﺑﺎﺯﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﺍﺧﻴﺮ ﻣﻠﻮﺍﻧﺎﻥ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﻳﻰ ﺩﺭ‬      ‫ﺑﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ ﻧﻴﺰ‬         ‫ﺗﻼﻓﻰ ﺟﻮﻳﻰ ﺑﺨﺼﻮﺹ ﺑﺎ ﺣﻤﻠﻪ ﺑﻪ‬           ‫ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺁﺳﻴﺐ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻯ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ‬          ‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﺎ ﻏﻠﻈﺖ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻤﺐ‬
‫ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺭﺳﻤﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺩﻭ‬       ‫ﺧﻠﻴﺞ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﺧﻮﺑﻰ ﺍﺯ‬      ‫ﻓﻌﻼ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻏﻠﺒﻪ‬         ‫ﺳﺌﻮﻝ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺴﺖ ﺧﻄﺮ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﻪ‬          ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ‬     ‫ﺍﺗﻢ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺑﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ‬
‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﻳﻴﻠﻰﻫﺎ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺩﺍﺩﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ‬     ‫ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺣﺎﺩﺛﻪ ﺍﻯ ﻳﺎﺩ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻳﻚ‬       ‫ﺑﺮ ﺗﻼﺵﻫﺎﻯ ﻛﻨﮕﺮﻩ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ‬             ‫ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺩﻩﺗﺮ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺒﻪ ﺟﺰﻳﺮﻩ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺑﻪ‬      ‫ﺭﺍ ﻣﻮﻓﻖ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﻰ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ‬          ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰﻫﺎ ﺯﺭﺍﺩﺧﺎﻧﻪ‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻰ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ‪ 170‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ‬      ‫ﺍﺯ ﺩﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻯ ﻧﻜﺮﺩﻩ‬     ‫ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯﺧﻮﺍﻫﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﻟﻐﻮ ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻡ‬       ‫ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬  ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻋﻤﺎﻝ ﻓﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ‬        ‫ﻛﻮﭼﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻼﺡﻫﺎﻯ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺩﻻﺭ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ‬         ‫ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺑﻰ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬          ‫ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺐ ﻟﻮﺍﻳﺢ ﺗﺎﺯﻩ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬         ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪﺍﻯ‬      ‫ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺳﺘﺎ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ‬     ‫ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﺎﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻣﻮﺷﻜﻰ ﭘﺮ‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬     ‫ﻧﻤﻰﺷﺪ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺴﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺭﺍﺣﺘﻰ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬          ‫ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﻣﺠﺪﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬                                          ‫ﺗﻼﺵﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ ﻭ ﻣﺘﺤﺪﺍﻥ‬           ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻧﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻝ ﻣﻰﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﻩ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﭼﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ‬  ‫ﺍﺯﻫﻢ ﭘﺎﺷﻴﺪﻥ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﻭ ﻳﺎ‬         ‫ﺣﺎﻝ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﻫﻢ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺩﻭﺟﻴﻦ‬                      ‫ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﻧﺒﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬    ‫ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎﻳﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻦ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﻭ‬         ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﻓﺮﻕ ﻣﻰﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﻫﺮﭼﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺧﺎﻃﺮ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﻧﺎﺷﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻡ ﺑﻪ‬                                            ‫ﻃﺮﺡ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﮕﺮﻩ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ‬       ‫ﺑﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﻫﻤﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺩﺳﺖ‬      ‫ﭼﻴﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺋﺘﻼﻑ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﺭﺍ ﭘﺎﺱ‬      ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺎﻳﻰ ﻏﻨﻰﺳﺎﺯﻯ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻧﻴﻮﻡ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻫﺪﺭ ﺭﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﻛﺮﺩﻡ ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ‬                ‫ﺑﺮﻭﺯ ﺗﺸﻨﺞ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬      ‫ﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻰﮔﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﻴﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ‬        ‫ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻫﻢ ﺩﺍﺩﻧﺪ ﺗﺎ ﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ‬    ‫ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺠﺒﻮﺭ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﺑﺎ‬         ‫ﻛﺴﺐ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ‪ 3‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﺳﺎﻧﺘﺮﻳﻔﻴﻮژ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻇﻬﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻘﺎﻡﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻰ‬                                                                                 ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺷﺎﻫﺪ ﺭﻭﺯ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‬    ‫ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ‬           ‫ﻧﺼﺐ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭﻟﻰ ﻧﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭﻛﺎﻓﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺒﻨﻰ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺯﻳﺮﺑﻨﺎﻯ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‬   ‫ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﺍﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻭ‬                ‫ﻛﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺩﺭﺁﻳﺪ‪.‬‬                                        ‫ﻣﻮﺍﻓﻘﺖ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﻭ ﭼﻴﻦ‬          ‫ﻣﺎﺩﻩ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺑﻤﺐ ﺍﺗﻢ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻡ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻮﺕ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﺎﻗﻴﺴﺖ‬                            ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ؟‬                                                                                      ‫ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻯ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ‬     ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻭ ﻧﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺍﻯ ﺁﻧﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﻭﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬                                                                                                                                                          ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻧﻴﻮﻡ ﻏﻨﻰ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﺎ ﻏﻠﻈﺖ ﺑﺎﻻ‬
                                                                                                                                                                                              ‫ﺭﺍ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺭﻳﺴﻚ ﺣﻤﻠﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬
          ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺟﻮﻳﺎ ﺷﺪﻡ‪.‬‬                                                                                                                                                              ‫ﻳﺎ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﻳﻴﻞ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺴﺖ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻝ ﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺸﺎﻭﺭ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﭘﻴﺸﻴﻦ ﺭﻳﻴﺲ‬                                                                                                                                                                       ‫ﺗﻼﺵ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﺮ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻦ‬
‫ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﮔﻔﺖ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺩﺭ‬                                                                                                                                                                 ‫ﻳﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﻣﺨﻔﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻏﻨﻰﺳﺎﺯﻯ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻧﻴﻮﻡ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬                                                                                                                                                                ‫)ﻓﻮﺭﺩﻭ( ﻣﺘﻤﺮﻛﺰ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﻰ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﺗﺎﻛﻴﺪ‬                                                                                                                                                           ‫ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺁﻥ ﺧﺒﺮﺩﺍﺭ ﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺟﻠﻮﻯ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ‬
‫ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻃﺮﻓﻴﻦ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ‬                                                                                                                                                              ‫ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻰ ﺷﻚ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻣﺘﻴﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﻗﺎﻳﻞ‬                                                                                                                                                               ‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺗﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺷﺪ ‪ 98‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﺯ‬                                                                                                                                                                ‫ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﺳﻼﺡ‬
‫ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻧﻴﻮﻡ ﻏﻨﻰ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ‬                                                                                                                                                              ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﻧﺒﻮﺩ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺑﻔﺮﺳﺘﺪ‪ .‬ﻗﻠﺐ ﺭﺁﻛﺘﻮﺭ ﺍﺭﺍﻙ ﺭﺍ‬                                                                                                                                                               ‫ﺍﺯ ﻣﺪﺕﻫﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﺳﻼﺡ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺗﺎ ﻧﺘﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﭘﻠﻮﺗﻮﻧﻴﻮﻡ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﺑﻤﺐ ﺍﺗﻢ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬                                                                                                                                                                           ‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺁﺳﺎﻥﺗﺮ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺳﺎﻧﺘﺮﻳﻔﻴﻮژﻫﺎﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ‬                                                                                                                                                                 ‫ﺑﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺑﺰﺭگ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ‪،‬‬                                                                                                                                                             ‫ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻫﻴﺖ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻭ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ ﻫﻢ ﺍﻣﺘﻴﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ‬                                                                                                                                                               ‫ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻧﺪ‪ :‬ﺣﻔﻆ‬                                                                                                                                                                   ‫ﭘﻴﻮﻧﮓ ﻳﺎﻧﮓ ﻭ ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻥ ﺟﺴﺘﺠﻮ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ 5‬ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﺩﺳﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﺳﺎﻧﺘﺮﻳﻔﻴﻮژ ﺑﺎ‬                                                                                                                                                              ‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻫﺒﺮ‬
‫ﺍﺟﺎﺯﻩ ﻏﻨﻰﺳﺎﺯﻯ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻧﻴﻮﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ‬                                                                                                                                                                 ‫ﻭ ﺣﺰﺏ ﻛﻤﻮﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺘﻤﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﻭ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﺁﻥ ﻭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬                                                                                                                                                                ‫ﻭ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻣﻨﻴﺘﻰ‪ ،‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻳﻚ‬
‫ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻭ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺳﺎﻧﺘﺮﻳﻔﻴﻮژﻫﺎﻯ ﻗﻮﻯ‬                                                                                                                                                               ‫ﺭژﻳﻢ ﭘﻠﻴﺴﻰ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﺭﺁﻳﻰ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ‬                                                                                                                                                              ‫ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺘﻰ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ‬
‫ﻇﺮﻑ ‪ 10‬ﺗﺎ ‪ 15‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ‬                                                                                                                                                               ‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﻓﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ‬
‫ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺖ ﻏﻨﻰﺳﺎﺯﻯ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ‬                                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻭﻣﺖ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺁﺳﻴﺐ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻯﺍﺵ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺁﻏﺎﺯ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻣﺘﻴﺎﺯﺍﺗﻰ‬                                                                                                                                                          ‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﻓﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻫﺮ‬                                                                                                                                                             ‫ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﻳﻚ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻦ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺳﺨﺖ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺩﻧﺎﻙ‬                                                                                                                                                                   ‫ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﻛﻤﺘﺮﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﮔﺮﺍﻧﺪﻳﺸﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻫﻤﻪ ﮔﺮﻯ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﺍﻇﻬﺎﺭ‬                                                                                                                                                               ‫ﻭ ﻣﺨﺎﻟﻔﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮﻩ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻓﻜﺮ ﻧﻤﻰﻛﻨﺪ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻗﺎﻃﻌﻴﺖ‬                                                                                                                                                               ‫ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﮔﺮﻯ ﺳﻴﻤﻮﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﮔﻔﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻛﺪﺍﻡ ﻃﺮﻑ‬                                                                                                                                                               ‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﭘﻴﭽﻴﺪﻩ ﻭ ﭘﺮﺍﻛﻨﺪﻩ‬
                                                                                                                                                                                              ‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﺎﺯﻳﮕﺮ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬
             ‫ﺳﻮﺩﻣﻨﺪﺗﺮ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬                                                                                                                                                               ‫ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻯ ﻫﻢ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻓﻜﺎﺭ‬
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