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‫ﺟﻤﻌﻪ ‪ 28‬ﺍﻭﺕ ﺗﺎ ﭘﻨﺠﺸﻨﺒﻪ ‪ 3‬ﺳﭙﺘﺎﻣﺒﺮ ‪2015‬‬

‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺮﮔﺶ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺟﺎﻧﺸﻴﻨﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻫﺸﺖ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺩﻫﻪ‬
‫ﻭﺻﻴﺘﻰ ﻣﺒﻨﻰ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﺨﺺ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻫﺸﺘﻢ ﻋﻤﺮ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﻧﺪﻫﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﮔﺬﺍﺭ ﺗﺎ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ‬ ‫‪©Reuters‬‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺸﻴﻨﻴﺎﻧﺶ ﻧﻈﻴﺮ ﺧﻤﻴﻨﻰ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺘﻈﺮﻯ ﻭ ﻣﻬﺪﻭﻯ‬
‫ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻴﺖ ﺍﺭﺿﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻣﺮگﺁﻳﺖﺍﷲﻣﻬﺪﻭﻯﻛﻨﻰ‪،‬ﺑﻴﻤﺎﺭﻯﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﻭﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕﭘﻴﺶﺭﻭ‪،‬ﻣﺠﻠﺲﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥﺭﺍﻣﺮﻛﺰﺗﻮﺟﻪﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰﻛﺸﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺳﻦ ﻭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﺭﮔﺬﺷﺘﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻮﻋﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮﻩ ﺑﻴﻔﺘﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﻛﻮﭼﻪ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺁﺯﻣﻨﺪﻯ ﺩﻭ ﺩﺷﻤﻦ ﺩﻳﺮﻳﻨﻪ ﻣﺤﻤﺪﺗﻘﻰ ﻣﺼﺒﺎﺡ ﻳﺰﺩﻯ ﻭ ﻫﺎﺷﻤﻰﺭﻓﺴﻨﺠﺎﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺖ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻭﺝ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺗﺼﺎﺣﺐ ﻛﺮﺳﻰ ﻣﻬﺪﻭﻯ ﻛﻨﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﺴﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺳﺮﻧﻮﺷﺖ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﺳﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺷﻮﺩ ﭼﻪ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺮگ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺁﺗﻰ ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﻛﻪ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻦ ﻫﺎﺷﻤﻰﺷﺎﻫﺮﻭﺩﻯ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻴﻮﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻔﻜﺮ ﻭ ﺟﻨﺎﺡﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ‬
‫ﻧﮕﺎﻫﻰ ﻛﻠﻰﺗﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺟﺎﻧﺸﻴﻨﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺑﺤﺜﻰ ﺩﺍﻣﻨﻪﺩﺍﺭ ﻭ ﻣﺸﻜﻞﺁﻓﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﻭ ﻭ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻧﻮ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺮﺩﻳﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺟﻨﺎﺡ ﺑﻨﺪﻯ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺩﻭ ﺭﻗﻴﺐ ﺩﻳﺮﻳﻨﻪ ﻣﺼﺒﺎﺡ‬
‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺭﻃﻪ ﻧﺎ ﺍﻣﻨﻰ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﻴﺖ ﺑﺎﻻﻳﻰ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﺮگ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻰ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻫﺸﺖ‬ ‫ﻳﺰﺩﻯ ﻭ ﻫﺎﺷﻤﻰ ﺭﻓﺴﻨﺠﺎﻧﻰ ﭼﻄﻮﺭ ﺷﻜﻞ‬
‫ﻭ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻰ ﺑﻜﺸﺎﻧﺪ ‪.‬ﺗﺤﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﺧﻴﺮ ﻣﺠﻠﺲ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻰ ﺷﻚ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺁﻥ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺟﺎﻧﺸﻴﻨﻰ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﻭﻯ ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻴﻤﺎﺭﻯ ﻭﻯ ﺑﻌﻴﺪ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﻰﺭﻭﺩ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﻪ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺁﺗﻰ‬
‫ﭘﻰ ﺑﻴﻤﺎﺭﻯ ﻭ ﺳﻦ ﺑﺎﻻﻯ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﺁﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﻬﺪﻩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺒﺎﻥ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻣﻨﺪ ﺭﺍﻫﻜﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﺎﺡ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻧﺰﺍﻋﻰ ﺑﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺏ ﺑﺎﺯ ﺑﻪ ﻳﺎﺭﻯ ﺭﻫﺒﺮ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺑﺸﺘﺎﺑﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺚ ﻳﻚ ﺷﺒﻜﻪ ﻋﺮﻳﺾ ﻭ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺷﻮﺩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﻨﺎﺡ ﺑﻨﺪﻯﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺁﺗﻰ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺳﺮ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﺩ ﻓﺮﺍﻛﺴﻴﻮﻥﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﺭﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺏ( ﺷﻮﺭﺍﻯ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺎﻡ »ﺳﺘﺎﺩ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﻯ ﻓﺮﻣﺎﻥ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ« ﻭ »ﺑﻴﺖ‬
‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﺯ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﺩﻭ ﻗﻄﺒﻰ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﻭ ﻫﺮ ﺧﺮﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ« ﻛﺎﺭ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻝ ﺩﺭ ﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻫﺒﺮ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﺷﮕﺮﻓﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺮ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺁﻳﺖﺍﻟﻠﻬﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻬﻢﺧﻮﺍﻫﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ‪ ،‬ﺗﺸﻜﻠﻰ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻫﺎﺷﻤﻰﺷﺎﻫﺮﻭﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﻴﺮﺍﺙﺧﻮﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻪ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺎﻫﻰ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺒﺎﻳﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻛﻨﺎﺭ ﺁﻥ ﮔﺬﺷﺖ‪ ،‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺣﻮﺍﻝ ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﻫﻴﭻ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺩﺭ ﺁﺭﺍﻯ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﭼﻪ ﺭﺍﻧﺘﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺣﻴﺎﻁ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﭼﻴﻨﺶ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﻭ ﺣﻠﻘﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺳﺘﺎﻯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﻀﻞ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻧﺸﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻓﺮﺍﻛﺴﻴﻮﻥﻫﺎﻯ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻭ ﭘﻨﻬﺎﻥ ﻣﺘﺼﻞ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻚ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻫﻴﭻ ﻧﺸﺎﻧﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺭﻭﻯ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺳﻮﻡ ﺑﺴﺘﮕﻰ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺁﻳﺪ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﺑﻌﺎﺩ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺑﺮﺩ؟‬ ‫ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﭼﻬﺮﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﺎ ﻧﻔﻮﺫ ﻭ ﻗﺪﺭﺗﻤﻨﺪ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﻭ ﺗﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻟﺤﻈﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻴﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺣﻀﻮﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﮔﺰﻳﻨﺶ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺷﻮﺭﺍﻳﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎﻯ ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻧﺸﻴﻨﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺲ ﭘﺮﺩﻩ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺯ ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺏ ﺗﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﻇﺮﻓﻴﺖ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻨﻰ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺁﻥ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺷﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ ﺑﻰ ﺷﻚ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺎﻩﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺳﻮﻯ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻧﮕﺮﻓﺘﻪﺍﻧﺪ ﻭ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻧﺸﺎﻧﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺪﺍﺳﺖ ﺣﺴﻦ ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻓﺮﺩﻳﺴﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻧﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺭﻭﻧﻤﺎﻳﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﻮﻋﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴﻨﺪ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺑﻮﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻛﺪﺍﻡ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎ ﻭ‬ ‫‪ 2017‬ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺪﻳﺪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 68‬ﻫﻢ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻓﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﻭ ﺳﺎﺯ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺎﻩ ﻧﺎﺳﻮﺗﻰ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﻰﺭﺳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺯﻭﺩﻯ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﺵ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻭ‬
‫ﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺷﻤﺮﺩﻳﻢ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺩﻭﻡ ﻫﻢ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺼﺪﻯ ﭘﺴﺖ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺷﻮﺭﺍﻯ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻣﺘﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺭﺋﻴﺲ‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻜﻮﺗﻰ ﻭﻯ ﻣﻬﻴﺎ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﻇﻴﻔﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﻯ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺁﻣﺪﻥ ﻧﺴﻞ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻢﭘﻴﻤﺎﻧﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺟﺮﺍ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﻭﻗﺖ‪ ،‬ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﻗﻮﻩ ﻗﻀﺎﺋﻴﻪ ﻭ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﺍﻋﻀﺎﻯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﮕﺎﻥ ﺻﺎﺣﺒﺎﻥ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ‬
‫ﺷﺎﻳﻌﻪﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻧﮕﺮﺍﻧﻰﻫﺎ ﭘﻴﺮﺍﻣﻮﻥ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻨﻰ »ﻣﻘﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻣﺎﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﺷﻮﺩ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺑﻮﺩ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻰ ﻛﻠﻴﺖ ﻧﻄﺎﻡ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺸﻴﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﮕﺎﺭﺷﻰ ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺍﻣﺮﻯ ﺑﺪﻳﻬﻰ ﻭ ﻧﺎﮔﺰﻳﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻈﻤﺎﻯ ﻭﻻﻳﺖ« ﺑﻰ ﺷﻚ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﺁﺗﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﮔﺮ ﺗﺼﻮﺭ ﻛﻨﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺯﻳﺎﺩ ﺗﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺸﻜﻞﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺤﻔﻠﻰ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺗﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺟﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭﻟﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺰﺍﺏ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ‪ ،‬ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺘﻰ‬
‫ﺍﺟﺒﺎﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻜﺎﭘﻮ ﻭ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻭﺍ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 2021‬ﺍﺯ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺭﻓﺖ ﻭ ﺣﺴﻦ ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻧﺪﺑﺎﺯﻯﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﮔﺮﺩ ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻋﻀﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺷﺪ ﻣﻮﻇﻒ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺳﻨﻰ ﺍﻋﻀﺎﻳﺶ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻔﺘﺎﺩ ﺳﺎﻝ‬
‫ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻣﺮگ ﺁﻳﺖﺍﷲ‬ ‫ﻫﻢ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺴﺖ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺷﻮﺭﺍﻯ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻭ ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻃﻰ ﻫﺸﺖ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻣﺎﻣﻮﺭﻳﺖ ﺧﻮﻳﺶ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻫﻤﻮﺍﺭﻩ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻤﺮﺩﺍﻧﺶ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻣﺸﻜﻴﻨﻰ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻭ ﮔﻔﺘﮕﻮﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺗﺤﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﭘﻴﺮﺍﻣﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻣﺎﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﺼﻮﺭ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﭘﻴﺶ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﻓﺮﺍﻛﺴﻴﻮﻥﻫﺎﻯ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺳﻄﻪ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻓﺎﻣﻴﻠﻰ ﻭ ﺳﺮ ﺳﭙﺮﺩﮔﻰ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻧﻘﺶ ﻭ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺎﻩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﻮﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺷﺎﻳﻌﻪ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﭘﻠﻜﺎﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻮﻓﻘﻴﺖ ﻃﻰ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺍﺻﻞ ﻭﻻﻳﺖ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﺷﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻫﺎﺷﻤﻰ ﺭﻓﺴﻨﺠﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻭﺝ ﺭﺳﻴﺪ‪،.‬‬ ‫ﺭﺍﻫﻜﺎﺭﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻓﺮﺍﻛﺴﻴﻮﻥ ﺍﺻﻼﺡ ﻭﺍﻋﺘﺪﺍﻝ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﻭﻥ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺩﺍﻣﻦ ﺯﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺍﻟﻒ( ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩ ﻭ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭﺳﺖ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺴﻞ ﺟﻮﺍﻥﺗﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﻓﺎﻣﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺎﺭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻓﻀﺎ ﻣﻠﺘﻬﺐﺗﺮ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺁﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﺻﻮﻝﮔﺮﺍﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻰ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻋﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻮﺭ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻧﺸﺎﻧﻪ ﻭ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ‪ 35‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﻫﻴﭻ ﮔﺎﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﺭﺳﻤﻰﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺣﺴﺎﺱﺗﺮ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﻧﺸﺴﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﻰ ﭼﻬﺮﻩ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺎﻫﻢ ﻭ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺁﺗﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺻ ّﻴﺖﺍﺵ ﻳﺎ ﭘﻴﺶ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﻧﺪﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻨﻰ ﻣﻬﺪﻭﻯ ﻛﻨﻰ ﻏﺎﺋﻠﻪ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻦ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻛﺴﺐ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢﺑﻨﺪﻯﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻪ ﺿﻠﻊ ﺷﻮﺭﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎ ﻧﮕﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﻳﻔﺎﻯ ﻧﻘﺶ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻳﻚ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻣﻰﻣﺎﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺁﻥ ﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮﺷﻤﺎﺭﻯ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎ ﺑﭙﺮﺩﺍﺯﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﺮﻯ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺎ ﺑﺮ ﻋﻜﺲ ﺩﻫﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ‬
‫ﺁﻥ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻧﮕﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﭼﻨﺪﺍﻧﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻼﻣﺖ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺷﻮﺭﺍﻳﻰ ﻭﺳﻴﻊﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺸﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻧﻘﻞ ﻗﻮﻝﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺩﻻﻟﺖﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺏ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺧﻤﻴﻨﻰ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻴﺮﺍﻣﻮﻥ ﺧﻮﺩ‬
‫ﻧﺒﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺟﺎﻧﺸﻴﻨﻰ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻣﺤﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺕ( ﺩﺧﺎﻟﺖ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻴﻮﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﻮﻗﺖ ﺗﺎ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﺷﻤﻰﺭﻓﺴﻨﺠﺎﻧﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 68‬ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﻧﺸﺪ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﮔﺮﻭﻫﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻴﻮﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ﺩﻭ ﺗﺎ ﺳﻪ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﻧﺒﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺣﺎﻻ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﺑﺎ ﻓﻀﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺳﭙﺎﻩ ﭘﺎﺳﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﭘﺴﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺖﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﻗﻀﺎ ﺧﻤﻴﻨﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺎﻳﺐ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺧﻮﺍﻧﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﻫﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﻭ ﺟﻮﺍﻥﺗﺮ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺭﻗﺎﺑﺘﻰ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺑﺎ ﺩﻭ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺍﺑﻘﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺁﻳﺎ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﻓﻀﺎﻳﻰ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺩﻫﻪ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺏ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻴﻮﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﭘﻴﺸﻪ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ :‬ﻳﻜﻰ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺑﺮ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺷﺨﺼﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻴﺮﻭ ﺭﺍ ﭘﺎﺳﺪﺍﺭﻯ ﻛﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻪ ﺣﻠﻘﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺑﺎ ﺁﻥ ﻣﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺎﻥﺳﺎﻟﻰ ﻫﻢ ﻧﺮﺳﻴﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﺍﻣﻮﺭ‬
‫ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺁﺗﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻰ ﺷﻚ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻳﻰ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺫﻫﻦ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻝ ﻛﻪ ﭘﻴﺶﺗﺮ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﺗﻴﻜﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺟﺮﺍ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻫﻢﺭﺃﻳﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺭﺳﻴﺪ؟‬ ‫ﻣﻤﻠﻜﺖﺩﺍﺭﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﻭ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﺍﻋﻀﺎﻯ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺮ ﺁﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻮﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻛﻪ ﺳﭙﺎﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ‪-‬‬ ‫ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺭﺍﻩ ﭼﺎﺭﻩ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﻭﻯ ﺣﺎﻛﻤﻴﺖ ﻭ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﻣﻰ ﻛﻪ ﮔﺎﻫﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺟﺎﻧﺸﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺧﻮﺩ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺳﻦ ﺍﻛﺜﺮﻳﺖ ﺍﻋﻀﺎﻯ ﻫﺮ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰﺍﺵ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻓﺸﺎﺭ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻻﻳﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺍﺻﻞ ﻭﻻﻳﺖ ﻓﻘﻴﻪ ﺭﺍ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﺵ ﻣﻰﺭﺳﺪ ﻛﺴﻰ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﺟﺰ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﺑﻴﻨﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺩﻫﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ‪ 40‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﺗﺠﺎﻭﺯ‬
‫ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﻼﺵ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺴﺖ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺑﻘﺎﻯ ﺁﻥ ﺗﻼﺵ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺎﺩ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﺁﻳﺖﺍﷲ ﻫﺎﺷﻤﻰ ﺷﺎﻫﺮﻭﺩﻯ‪ .‬ﺍﻭ ﻛﻪ ﻳﻚ ﻋﺮﺍﻗﻰﺗﺒﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻰﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺳﻨﻰ ﺣﺴﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﻫﺎﺷﻤﻰ ﺭﻓﺴﻨﺠﺎﻧﻰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺎ ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﻓﻘﺪﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺍﺑﻘﺎ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﻻﺯﻣﻪ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﻯ ﺑﺎﺯﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﻭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 1359‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺁﻳﺖﺍﷲ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﺎ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻳﻚ ﺩﻫﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻧﺴﻠﻰ ﺟﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﺭﻛﺸﺘﮕﺎﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺣﻠﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯ ﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺷﺎﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩﻳﻢ‪ .‬ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺍﻣﺮﻯ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻰ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ‪ .‬ﺷﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﺫﻛﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﺑﺎﻗﺮ ﺻﺪﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ ﻧﺴﻞ ﺳ ّﻨﻰ ﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺘﻤﺪﻳﻦ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻭﺟﻪ‬ ‫ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺐ ﺍﺯ ﻋﺮﺻﻪ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﻭ‬ ‫ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺍﻣﺮﻯ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﻧﺴﻞ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺷﺒﻴﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 68‬ﻭ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻨﻰ ﺧﻤﻴﻨﻰ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺍﺩﺭﺍﻥ ﻻﺭﻳﺠﺎﻧﻰ ﻭ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻯ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺁﻳﺖﺍﷲ ﻣﺼﺒﺎﺡ ﻳﺰﺩﻯ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﮔﺰﻳﻨﺶ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺟﻨﺎﺡ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺣﺮﻑ ﻭ ﺣﺪﻳﺚﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻧﺴﻞﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺭﻗﻴﺐ ﺳﺮ ﺳﺨﺖ ﺟﻨﺎﺡ ﻫﺎﺷﻤﻰ ﺑﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻣﻰ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺮﺍ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﻓﻀﺎﻳﻰ ﭼﻪ ﻓﺮﺍﻛﺴﻴﻮﻥ ﻃﺮﻓﺪﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻠﻴﺖ ﻋﺮﺍﻗﻰ ﻫﺎﺷﻤﻰ ﺷﺎﻫﺮﻭﺩﻯ ﺷﻨﻴﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﺟﻮﺍﻥﺗﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺍﺣﻤﺪﻯ ﻧﮋﺍﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮ ﻛﻢ‬
‫ﺷﻚ ﺗﻼﺵ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻨﺎﻥ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺭﺍﺣﺘﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺑﺮﺳﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﺑﺎ ﻧﻔﻮﺫﻯ‬ ‫ﺣﺠﺞﺍﻻﺳﻼﻡ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﺧﺎﺗﻤﻰ ﻭ ﺣﺴﻦ ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻯ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺑﻰ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺴﺘﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺗﺠﺮﺑﮕﻰ ﺑﺎ ﺷﻜﺴﺖ ﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭ ﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳﺖ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﻭ ﻃﻴﻔﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻢﻓﻜﺮﺍﻥ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ ﺭﻓﺴﻨﺠﺎﻧﻰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺩﺭ ﻗﻴﺪ ﺣﻴﺎﺕ ﻧﺒﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﭼﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﺩﺭﺍﻥ ﻻﺭﻳﺠﺎﻧﻰ ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﺻﻮﻝﮔﺮﺍﻳﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺎﻫﻰ ﻭﺍﻻ ﻭ ﻣﻘﺮﺏ ﺩﺭﮔﺎﻩ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﻣﺠﺒﻮﺭ ﺷﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻫﻤﻪ ﺑﺴﺘﮕﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮﻧﻮﺷﺖ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﺻﺘﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﺗﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺪﻳﺪﺍﻫﺎﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺩﺭ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﻭ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻜﻰ ﺷﻴﻌﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﺴﺎﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﻭ ﺩﻫﻪ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺩﺭ ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺳﺎﺯﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺳﭙﺎﻩ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺑﻪ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﺮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺟﺪﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻧﻔﻮﺫ ﻫﺎﺷﻤﻰ ﺷﺎﻫﺮﻭﺩﻯ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺠﻒ‬
‫ﺭژﻳﻢ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺑﻘﺎﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﭘﺴﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺳﭙﺎﻩ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺑﻌﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﻓﺮﺻﺖ ﺗﺎﺯﻩﺍﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﺒﺎﺭﺯﻩ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻳﻚ ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﺮﺟﺴﺘﻪ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺴﺖ ﻭﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﺮﺻﻪ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﺋﻰ ﺑﺎﺯﮔﺮﺩﺍﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﭼﺎﺭﻩﺍﻯ ﺟﺰ ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻥ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺴﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺁﻭﺭﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﻭ ﭼﻬﺮﻩ ﺑﺮﺗﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺣﺴﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﭼﻬﺮﻩﺍﻯ ﺑﺎ ﻧﻔﻮﺫ ﭼﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺷﺎﺧﺼﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻨﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﭼﺎﻟﺸﻰ‬
‫ﺟﻮﺍﻥﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻌﺘﻘﺪﻳﻦ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯﻳﺶ ﺗﺎ ﺁﻥ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺣﻔﻆ ﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻨﺎﺡ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺍﻋﺘﺪﺍﻝﮔﺮﺍﻳﺎﻥ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﺰﺭگ ﻭ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻃﻤﻴﻨﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻧﺴﻠﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺎﻥ ﭘﺸﺖ ﺳﺮ ﮔﺬﺍﺷﺘﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﮔﺮ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﭘﻴﺶ‬ ‫ﺻﺎﺩﻕ ﻻﺭﻳﺠﺎﻧﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻨﺎﺡ ﺍﺻﻮﻝﮔﺮﺍﻳﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﻧﺴﺖ‬ ‫ﻭ ﭼﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﺻﻮﻝﮔﺮﺍﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻠﺴﻠﻪ ﻣﺮﺍﺗﺐ ﻭ ﭘﻴﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﺣﻠﻘﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻭﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﻯ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﺭﻫﺒﺮ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻓﺎﻛﺘﻮﺭﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺷﺎﻫﺮﻭﺩﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺴﺐ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﻤﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺳﻨﺘﻰ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﻧﺴﻠﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺑﺮگ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ ﺑﺎﺯ ﺷﻮﺩ ﺭﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﻻ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻚ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ ﻣﻴﺎﻥﺳﺎﻟﻰ ﺍﻭﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﻣﺸﻜﻞ ﺑﻌﺪﻯ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻧﺪﻩﺍﺵ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﺩﺭ »ﺣﻤﺎﺳﻪ ﺩﻓﺎﻉ ﻣﻘﺪﺱ«‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺣﻔﻆ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺳﭙﺎﻩ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺴﻠﻤﺎ ﻣﺠﻠﺲ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﻛﺘﻮﺭ ﺳﻦ ﺭﺍ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺁﻥ ﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻓﻘﺪﺍﻥ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺎﻩ ﻭﻻﻳﻰ ﺍﻭ ﻭ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﻭ ﺍﺯ »ﻳﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻣﺎﻡ« ﺩﺭ ﻣﺴﻴﺮ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺏ‬ ‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻰ ﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ پ( ﺗﻔﻮﻳﺾ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻛﺘﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﭘﺴﺖ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻣﻰﺩﺍﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﻰ ﺍﻛﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺎﻩ ﻭ ﻓﺮﻣﺎﻥﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﻯ‬
‫ﻧﺒﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺗﺎ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﭼﻮﻥ ﻣﺼﺒﺎﺡ ﻳﺰﺩﻯ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﻳﻰ ﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺷﺎﻫﺮﻭﺩﻯ ﺑﺎ ‪ 66‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﺳﻦ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﻣﺮگ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺭﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﺳﺨﺘﻰ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺪﻋﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ ﻣﺮﺗﻀﻰ ﺁﻗﺎ ﺗﻬﺮﺍﻧﻰ‪ ،‬ﺣﻤﻴﺪ ﺭﺳﺎﻳﻰ‪ ،‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻛﺎﻧﺪﻳﺪﺍﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻧﻈﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺳﺮﺳﭙﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﻭﻻﻳﺖ‬
‫ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻭ ﻫﻢﻓﻜﺮﺍﻥ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﺣﻤﺪ ﺧﺎﺗﻤﻰ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺻﺎﺩﻕ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 68‬ﻭ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﻫﺎﺷﻤﻰﺭﻓﺴﻨﺠﺎﻧﻰ ﻭ ﻣﺼﺒﺎﺡ ﻳﺰﺩﻯ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺣﻞ ﻣﻌﻀﻞ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻭ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﻻﺭﻳﺠﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪﺭﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺑﻰ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﻣﻰﺩﺍﻧﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﻧﮕﺮﺍﻧﻰﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻣﺨﺎﻟﻔﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺻﻮﻝﮔﺮﺍﻳﺎﻥ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﻳﺪ ﺳﭙﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﻭﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻧﺒﻮﺩ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺳﻦﺷﺎﻥ ﺍﺯ ‪ 80‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﺗﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺁﻳﺎ ﺭﻫﺒﺮ ﺁﺗﻰ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻭﻻﻳﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻋﺎﻗﺒﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺑﻴﻤﻨﺎﻙ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻭﻯ ﺩﻳﺪﻯ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺷﺨﺼﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻫﺎﺷﻤﻰ ﺷﺎﻫﺮﻭﺩﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ‬ ‫ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﻭﻻﻳﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻻ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺁﺗﺶ ﺭﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﻭ ﻧﺒﺮﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻏﺮﻳﺒﻰ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻭﺟﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺎﻩ ﻭﻳﮋﻩ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺑﺮ ﺳﺮ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺬﻑ ﻓﻴﺰﻛﻰ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺣﺎﻣﻰﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺳﭙﺎﻩ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻓﻘﺪﺍﻥ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ‪ ،‬ﺭﻓﺴﻨﺠﺎﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﻻﻳﺖﻣﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﻻﻳﺖﻣﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ؟‬
‫ﺟﻨﮓ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ‪ ،‬ﺑﻰ ﺛﺒﺎﺗﻰ ﻭ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺙ( ﻳﻚ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺎﻩ ﺧﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻼﺵ ﻛﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺎﺭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺭﺋﻴﺲ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﮔﺰﻳﻨﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺘﮕﺎﻩ ﻋﺮﻳﺾ ﻭ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺑﻴﺖ‬ ‫ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ ﻧﺨﺴﺘﻴﻦ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﭼﺸﻢﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺳﺒﺐ ﻧﮕﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺣﺴﻦ ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺳﻮﺍﺑﻘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻭﻯ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﭼﻴﺰﻯ ﻧﺼﻴﺐﺍﺵ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻨﺞ ﺳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﻭﻯ‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺑﻌﺪﻯ ﻳﻚ ﺻﻨﺪﻟﻰ ﺧﺎﻟﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﭘﺮﻭﻧﺪﻩ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺑﺮﺳﺎﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻭﻝ ﻭﻻﻳﺖﺍﺵ ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﺎ ﻛﺎﺳﺘﻰﻫﺎﻳﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﻰ ﭘﻴﺪﺍﻳﺶ‬
‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻜﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﻭ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﮔﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺎﻩ ﻭﻻﻳﻰ ﺍﻭ ﭘﻰ ﺑﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﺎﻻ ﻭ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺩﻗﻴﻖ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﺗﻴﻜﺎﻥ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺮﻯ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺫﻫﻦ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪. .‬‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻰﺭﺳﺪ ﻓﻀﺎﻯ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬
‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﻛﻠﻴﺪﻯ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺧﻼء ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺣﺎﻛﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺮگ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﺪﺗﻰ ﺗﺎ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻭ ﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﺗﺴﻠﻂ ﻭ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﺴﺖ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻳﺎﺭﻳﺶ ﺑﺸﺘﺎﺑﺪ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺯﺳﺎﺯﻯ ﺩﻭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺎﻩ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺷﺨﺺ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻃﻤﻴﻨﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ‬ ‫ﺷﻮﺭﺍﻯ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻣﺪﺗﻰ ﻛﺮﺳﻰ ﻭﻻﻳﺖ ﺧﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﻤﺎﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ ﺟﻨﺎﺡ ﺑﺮ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﻣﺮ‬ ‫ﻳﻜﻰ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺸﺘﻮﺍﻧﻪ ﺷﻴﻌﻴﺎﻥ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﻭ ﺳﺮﻧﻮﺷﺖ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻧﻬﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭ ﻏﺮﻳﺒﻰ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﺪﺕ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺩﻩﺍﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ‪ ،‬ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻮﻋﻰ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻯ ﺷﻴﻌﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﻓﺮﺍﻫﻢ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻦ ﺷﺒﻜﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﻤﺎﻧﺪ ﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎﻥ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺏ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﺗﺎ ﻧﻴﻤﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺁﻧﭽﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺑﺨﺸﻴﺪﻥ‬
‫ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﻋﺮﻳﺾ ﻭ ﻃﻮﻳﻞ ﺩﺭ ﻋﺮﺻﻪ ﻣﺬﻫﺒﻰ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺷﺒﻴﻪ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﺑﺮ ﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺪﺍﺭ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﻭ ﺗﺜﺒﻴﺖ ﻭﻯ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻣﻨﻴﺘﻰ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ‪ ،‬ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﭼﻪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻰ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 68‬ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﺎ ﻧﻔﻮﺫﻯ ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ ﺭﻓﺴﻨﺠﺎﻧﻰ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺷﺪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺗﻰ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻄﻦ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺁﺷﻔﺘﮕﻰ ﻭ ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﺭﻭﻧﻰ ﺭژﻳﻢ‪ ،‬ﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺭﻭﻯ ﺩﺍﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﻚﻫﺎﻯ ﺭﻓﺴﻨﺠﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻰ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬
‫ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺑﻼﻯ ﺟﺎﻥ ﺻﺎﺣﺒﺎﻥ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺑﻠﻜﻪ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻴﺖ‬ ‫ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺩﺭﻭﻥ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ‬ ‫ﻧﺨﺴﺘﻴﻦ ﺑﻪ ﻳﺎﺭﻯ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺷﺘﺎﻓﺖ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺁﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺑﻪ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﺍﻗﺘﺪﺍﺭ ﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﺴﺖ ﺧﺎﻟﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺿﻌﻒ ﺁﻥ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﻭ ﻫﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻜﻴﻢ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻳﺶ ﺍﻭ ﺭﺍ ﻳﺎﺭﻯ ﺩﺍﺩ ‪ .‬ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭ ﻣﻰﺭﻭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﺗﺴﻠﻂ ﻫﺮﭼﻪ ﺳﺮﻳﻊﺗﺮ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺿﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺍﻣﻨﻴﺖ ﻫﻤﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻴﺎﻥ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻧﺪ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺗﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻗﺒﻴﻞ ﺑﺎﻻ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺗﺸﻨﺠﺎﺕ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻨﺎﺡﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﺭﻭﻥ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﺯ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﻭ ﺛﺮﻭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﺭﻫﺎﺷﻤﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺪﺭﺍﻥ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﻯ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻘﻰﻧﻈﻴﺮﻛﺮﺩﺳﺘﺎﻥﻭﺑﻠﻮﭼﺴﺘﺎﻥﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﺍﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﻓﺰﻭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫*ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ‪:‬‬ ‫ﻣﺸﻜﻞﺁﻓﺮﻳﻨﻰ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ‬
‫ﻣﺸﻜﻞ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﻭ‪ ،‬ﺷﺒﻜﻪ ﺑﺰﺭگ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬
‫‪The Next Supreme Leader:‬‬ ‫ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎ‬
‫‪Succession in the Islamic Republic‬‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻧﺎﻡ ﺑﻴﺖ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫‪of Iran By Alireza Nader, S. R.‬‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻨﺎ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﭘﺲ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﻣﺮگ ﺍﻭ ﺑﻰ ﺷﻚ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺯﻧﺠﻴﺮﻩ ﻋﻈﻴﻢ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻧﻔﻮﺫ‬
‫‪Bohandy‬‬ ‫ﻧﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻰ ﻭ ﻧﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﻰ ﺗﺴﻠﻴﻢ‬
‫ﻫﻴﭻ ﺩﺳﺘﮕﺎﻫﻰ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺭﻭﻳﺎﺭﻭﻳﻰ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻓﻴﺎﻯ ﻋﻈﻴﻢ ﻭ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﺭﺑﺎﺑﺶ‬
‫‪Iran’s Succession Battle: Does it‬‬ ‫ﻛﺎﺭﻯ ﺑﺲ ﻣﺸﻜﻞ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ‪ .‬ﺍﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺮﺷﺖ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ »ﻧﻬﺎﺩ‬
‫‪ ?Matter‬ﺍﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺁﻟﻔﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ« ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻧﻪ ﺷﺨﺺ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﺎ‬
‫‪Here are the most likely‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻫﻤﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﺮﺳﺶ ﭘﻴﺶ ﻣﻰﺁﻳﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺁﻳﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫‪candidates to replace Iran’s ailing‬‬ ‫ﻧﻬﺎﺩ ﻗﺪﺭﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺩﻳﻮﺍﻥﺳﺎﻻﺭﺍﻥ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺴﻠﻴﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻫﺒﺮﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ‬
‫‪Supreme Leader‬‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ؟ ﺁﻳﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺩﻩ ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ‬
‫‪Future Scenarios for the Ofﬁce of‬‬ ‫ﺩﻻﺭﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺎ ‪ 100‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﺯﺩﻩ‬
‫‪the Supreme Leader of the Islamic‬‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻭﻻﻳﺖ ﺭﻫﺒﺮ ﺁﺗﻰ ﺭﺍ ﮔﺮﺩﻥ ﻣﻰﻧﻬﺪ ﻭ ﻳﺎ‬

‫‪Republic of Iran‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞﺍﺵ ﻣﻰﺍﻳﺴﺘﺪ؟‬
‫‪Iran scenarios for supreme leader‬‬ ‫ﻫﺮﭼﻨﺪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﻋﻈﻴﻤﻰﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻣﻴﺮﺍﺙ‬
‫‪) s succession‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﻣﺘﺄﺳﻔﺎﻧﻪ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻣﻨﻪﺍﻯ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻛﻪ‬

‫ﻣﺪﺕ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻫﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﻳﺖ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ(‬

‫*ﺗﺮﺟﻤﻪ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ‪ :‬ﻣﺤﺴﻦ ﺑﻬﺰﺍﺩ ﻛﺮﻳﻤﻰ‬

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