Page 11 - (کیهان لندن - سال سى و سوم ـ شماره ۲۴ (دوره جديد

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‫ﺟﻤﻌﻪ ‪ 4‬ﺗﺎ ﭘﻨﺠﺸﻨﺒﻪ ‪ 10‬ﺳﭙﺘﺎﻣﺒﺮ ‪2015‬‬

‫‪ 15‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﺳﺘﻴﺎﺑﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻼﺡ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻭﻳﻦ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﺗﻤﻰﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺭﻭﻳﺎﺭﻭﻳﻰ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﻫﻤﺨﻮﺍﻥ ﻧﺒﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻭﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬
‫ﺗﻌﻮﻳﻖ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺧﺘﻪﺍﻧﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﻖ ﻣﻰﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﺗﻤﻰﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ ﭘﻴﭽﻴﺪﻩﺗﺮ ﻭ ﺧﻄﺮﻧﺎﻙﺗﺮ‬
‫ﻭ ﺍﻃﻤﻴﻨﺎﻥ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ‬ ‫ﺳﻼﺡﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﺭﻑ ﺗﺎ ﭘﻨﺞ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﺍﺯ ﮔﺮﺩﻭﻧﻪ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺍﺗﻤﻰﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺭژﻳﻢ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺳﻼﺡ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻳﺎﺑﻨﺪ ﺍﻣﺮﻯ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﭼﻴﺪﻩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺯﺩ ﻭ ﻧﺎﻇﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﭼﺸﻢ ﻭ ﮔﻮﺵ ﺧﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻭ… ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻥ ﮔﺬﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺣﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻰﻣﻔﺎﺩ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬
‫ﻣﺪﺭﻥ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎﻯ ﺿﺪ ﻫﻮﺍﻳﻰ‬ ‫ﺭﺍ ﻣﺘﻮﺟﻪ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻦ ﻭ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﺍﺕ ﭘﻨﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺁﻏﺎﺯ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺗﺎ‬
‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻰﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺭﻭﻯ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺳﻼﺡﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﻣﺸﻜﻮﻙ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‬ ‫ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺑﺮﭼﻴﺪﻥ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻞﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ‪،‬‬ ‫ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﺗﺎﻣﻴﻦ ﻭ ﺑﻨﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺎﺻﻴﺖ‬ ‫ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺗﺎﻛﻴﺪ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺧﻮﺍﻧﺶ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﺑﻮﺩ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﻫﻤﮕﺎﻡ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺗﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎ ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﭘﻮﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﺳﭙﺮ ﺩﻓﺎﻋﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﺯ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺩﻓﺎﻋﻰﺷﺎﻥ ﻣﻐﺎﻳﺮﺗﻰ ﺑﺎ ﻫﻴﭻ ﺍﺻﻠﻰ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﺑﺎﺯﺭﺳﻰﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﺮﺯﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻨﻴﺎﺩﻫﺎﻯ ﺭﻓﺘﺎﺭﻯ ﺭژﻳﻢ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺣﺮﻛﺖ ﻣﻰﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻤﻨﻮﻋﻴﺖﻫﺎ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺑﺮ ﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻩﻫﺎ ﻣﻮﺷﻚ ﻗﺎﺭﻩﭘﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻫﺸﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﻛﻢﺭﻧﮓ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻧﻈﺎﺭﺕ ﻣﺪﺍﻭﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻧﻈﺮﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺾ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ‪،‬‬ ‫‪ 15‬ﺳﺎﻟﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺘﻦ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ ﻫﺪﻑ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺷﻜﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﭼﻴﺪﻩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻯ ﺑﺮ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺘﻔﻖﺍﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﺍﺯ ﮔﺮﺩﻭﻧﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻟﻪ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﮔﻨﺠﺎﻧﺪﻩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﻟﺤﺎﻅ‬
‫ﺻﺪﻫﺎ ﻣﻮﺷﻚ ﻣﻴﺎﻥﺑﺮﺩ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺗﻼﺵﻫﺎﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﻤﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﻏﺮﺑﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻧﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺳﺮﺩ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻭ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰﺍﺯ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻯ‬
‫ﻫﺰﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﻣﻮﺷﻚ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻫﺮ ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺎﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺖ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻦ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﺷﻚﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮﺩ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻘﻠﺐ ﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ ﻭ ﻧﺘﺎﻧﻴﺎﻫﻮ‪ ،‬ﺑﻠﻜﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﻣﻮﺿﻊ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻭ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻯ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻛﻼﻫﻚ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ ﻫﺪﻑ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺗﺎ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺗﻬﺎﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺩ ﻫﻤﮕﺎﻡ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﻯ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺳﻼﺡ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‬
‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻝ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻌﺪﺗﺮ ﺗﺎ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺁژﺍﻧﺲ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻛﻞ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺟﻨﮓ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻧﺎﮔﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﺩ ﺑﻰ ﺷﻚ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺟﻨﮓ‬
‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻰ ﭼﻪ ﻛﺴﻰ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﺍﻧﺮژﻯ ﺍﺗﻤﻰ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﺭ ﺟﻤﻊﺁﻭﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻰ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺷﻮﺭﻭﻯ‬ ‫ﻫﺮﭼﻨﺪﺩﺭﺍﻳﻦﻣﻴﺎﻥﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﻩﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﻋﻴﺎﺭ ﺧﺘﻢ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ‬
‫ﺗﺴﻠﻂ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﺎﺯ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ؟ ﭼﻪ ﻛﺴﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﻏﺮﺏ ﻫﻢ ﺷﺎﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩﻳﻢ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﻳﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮﺍﺕ ﺗﺨﺼﺼﻰ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻰ‬
‫ﻳﺎﺭﺍﻯ ﺗﻮﻗﻒ ﺁﺭﺯﻭﻯ ﺩﻳﺮﻳﻨﻪ ﺷﻴﻌﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺷﻜﻰ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻓﻊ‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺟﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻭﺟﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ‪ 15‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﺴﻠﻂ ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ؟ ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ ﻭ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺎً ﺗﺴﻠﻴﺤﺎﺗﻰ‬ ‫ژﻧﺮﺍﻝ ﻳﺎﻛﻮﻑ ﺍﻣﻴﺪﺭﻭﺭ‪ :‬ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 2031‬ﺍﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻳﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﻔﺘﮕﻮﻫﺎ ﺟﺎﻯ ﻧﮕﺮﻓﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻤﻨﻮﻋﻴﺖ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﻏﺮﺏ ﻭ‬
‫ﻛﺴﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻳﺎﺭﺍﻯ ﺗﻮﻗﻒ ﻧﺎﻳﺐ ﺍﻣﺎﻡ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ‪ 10‬ﺗﺎ ‪ 15‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﻣﻮﻓﻘﻴﺖ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪2015‬‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﻓﻘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﭼﺸﻢﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞﺩﻳﮕﺮﺑﺎﻛﺸﻮﺭﻯﮔﺮﻓﺘﺎﺭﺿﻌﻒ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺣﺎﻻ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺳﻼﺡ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺭﺍ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺭﺍﺣﺘﻰ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺖ؟ ﻛﺸﻤﻜﺶﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﮕﺮﻩ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻭ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎﻯ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﻀﺎء ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺛﻤﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻛﺎﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﺸﻜﻞﺗﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬
‫ﻫﻢ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ؟‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺣﻖ ﻭﺗﻮﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻫﻤﺴﺎﻳﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻫﺪﻑ ﻣﻮﺷﻜﻰ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻭ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﺩﻗﻴﻖ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻰ ﺩﻳﺪﮔﺎﻩ ﺩﻳﭙﻠﻤﺎﺗﻴﻚ‪ ،‬ﺍﺻﻞ‬ ‫ﺗﺎﻳﻴﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﮕﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺧﻄﺮ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻰﺷﻨﺎﺳﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺭﺍﺳﺘﺎ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﺘﺎ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﻰ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻔﺎﺩﺵ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮ ﻣﻰﺩﺍﻧﺪ ﭼﺮﺍ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﺗﺎﻳﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﮕﺮﻩ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻧﺸﺴﺖ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ‪ ،‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﻬﺪﺍﺗﺶ‬
‫ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺁﻣﺎﺩﻩ ﺷﺪﻥ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺧﺎﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻬﺒﻮﺩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‬ ‫ﺁژﺍﻧﺲ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻬﺎﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺮﺍﺗﺐ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍﻫﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﺳﺒﺐ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﻭﺭﻡ ﻛﻪ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﻳﻰﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺟﺪﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻞ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺍ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻭ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮﻯ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑ ﻭ ﻣﻘﺎﻭﻣﺖ ﻃﻮﻻﻧﻰﺗﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﺳﺨﺖﺗﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻜﻰ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﮔﻔﺘﮕﻮ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺧﻄﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﻣﻔﺎﺩ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺑﺴﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺭﺳﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻳﻚ ﻣﺴﺎﺑﻘﻪ ﺗﺴﻠﻴﺤﺎﺗﻰ ﻣﻰﺭﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺁﻥ‬ ‫ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻓﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﻰ ﻭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻧﻈﺎﺭﺕ ﺑﻰ ﻭﻗﻔﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﺭژﻳﻢ‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺘﻴﺎﺑﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻼﺡ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‬
‫ﻫﻢ ﺍﺗﻤﻰ‪ .‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻋﺮﺑﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﺕ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺗﻜﻴﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻭﺯ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺭﺍ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 15‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﻖ ﻣﻰﺍﻓﺘﺪ )ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺩﻓﺎﻋﻰ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻛﺎﻓﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺭ ﻗﻄﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺁژﺍﻧﺲﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﻰ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﻗﺒﻞﺍﺯﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺩﺭﻣﻮﺍﺿﻊﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﺩﺭﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺨﺸﻰﺍﺯﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖﻓﻘﻂﺑﻪﻣﺪﺕ‪ 10‬ﺳﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﻓﺮﺍﻧﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎﻯ ﺣﺴﺎﺱ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺍﺗﻤﻰ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻣﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﻓﻜﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ(‪ .‬ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺯﺭﺳﻰﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﻭ ﺍﻧﮕﻠﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻫﻨﮕﻔﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺁﻏﺎﺯ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﻭ ﺷﺮﺍﻛﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﺍﻣﺮﻯ ﻣﺤﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻰﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﻭ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺭﺍﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﭼﻪ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﻭ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻪ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﻃﻤﻴﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﺯ ﻋﺪﻡ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﻭ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻳﺘﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯ ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺯﮔﺸﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﺍﺕ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻭ ﻋﺎﺩﻯ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻠﻒ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺁﻧﭽﻪ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﺑﺮﺳﺪ ﻗﺎﺋﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻫﻤﻮﺍﺭﻩ ﻳﻚ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻤﺐ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺑﮕﺸﺎﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﻫﻢ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ؟‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺳﺮﭘﻴﭽﻰ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﺷﻮﺍﺭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻣﺪﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﻯ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﻣﻬﻤﻰﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻓﻰ )ﻳﻚ ﺳﺎﻝ( ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻨ ‪.‬ﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻻﺯﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺗﺨﻠﻒ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﻛﺎﻓﻴﺴﺖ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﻭﺭﻧﺪ ﻭ ﻣﻌﺘﻘﺪﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﻫﻜﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﭘﺮﺳﺶ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﻭﻯ ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺁﻣﺎﺩﮔﻰ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺭﻭﻳﻜﺮﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺩﻋﺎﻯ ﺻﺤﻴﺤﻰ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺩﻳﭙﻠﻤﺎﺗﻴﻚ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻓﺘﺎﺭ ﺭژﻳﻢ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻰ ﺷﻚ ﺍﻣﻨﻴﺖ ﻭ ﺛﺒﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﭼﻴﺰﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﻭ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻧﺒﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﻧﺎﺩﻳﺪﻩ‬
‫ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮﻩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺯﻳﺮ ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﻣﻰﺑﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﻏﺎﻓﻠﮕﻴﺮ ﺷﺪﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻛﺮﻩ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﻭ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺗﺎﻛﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻢ ﻛﻪ ﻫﺮ ﺭﺍﻫﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺿﻌﻒﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻛﻤﺒﻮﺩﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺧﺖ‪ .‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻨﻰ‪ ،‬ﻋﺮﺑﺴﺘﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻳﻰﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺭﺍ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺁﺯﺍﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺭﻭﺷﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺳﻌﻮﺩﻯ‪ ،‬ﻣﺼﺮ ﻭ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺘﻰ ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﻭ ﺁﺗﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺩﻛﺘﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻦ ﺷﺒﻬﺎﺗﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻓﺎﻛﺘﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶﺗﺮ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻞ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺤﻔﻮﻅ ﺑﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺳﺘﺎﻯ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﻖ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺧﺘﻦ‬
‫ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻩﺍﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﺯﻣﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻟﻴﻦ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻌﻮﻳﻖ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻛﻪ ﺷﺶ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻘﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺘﻴﺎﺑﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻤﺐ ﺍﺗﻤﻰﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺴﺎﺑﻘﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﺷﻴﻌﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺴﺖﺟﺎﻳﮕﺎﻩﺑﻬﺘﺮﻯﺩﺭﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻴﺎﻝ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻛﺎﻓﻰ‬ ‫ﮔﺬﺷﺖ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺳﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺭﺍ ﺍﻣﻀﺎء ﻛﺮﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ ﻧﺒﺎﻳﺪ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﺭﺍ ﻓﻠﺞ‬ ‫ﺷﺪ ﻭ ﻧﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﺑﺨﺸﻴﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻋﻘﺐ ﺑﻤﺎﻧﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮﺍﻍ ﺳﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻭ ﻧﻔﻮﺫﺵ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺖ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎﺯﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻣﺎﺟﺮﺍﺟﻮﻳﻰ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﻨﻴﺖ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺍﺗﻤﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺴﺎﺏ‬
‫ﺍﺗﻤﻰﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺭﻓﺖ ﻭ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺍﺧﻼﻗﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻜﻴﻢ ﺑﺨﺸﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺗﺴﻠﻂ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﺷﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻯ ﻣﻰﮔﺮﺩﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﺗﻤﻰ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺎ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺮﻑ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﻫﺮ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺟﻠﻮﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﻛﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﻳﻤﻦ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﺗﺴﻠﻂ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺪﺏ‬ ‫ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻰ ﺧﻄﺮ ﻏﺎﻓﻠﮕﻴﺮﻯ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﭘﻴﺶ ﭘﺎ ﺍﻓﺘﺎﺩﻩﺗﺮ ﻧﻈﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﻢ‪» :‬ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺍﺟﺎﺯﻩ ﺩﻓﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺯﻣﺎﻥﺑﻨﺪﻯ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﻗﺴﻤﺘﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬
‫ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﻇﺎﻟﻢ ﻭ ﺟﺒﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮﻩ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺧﺘﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﺳﺎﻧﺘﺮﻳﻔﻴﻮژ ﻭ… ﻭ ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮﺍﻍ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ« ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﺗﻤﻰﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺧﻮﺩ‬
‫ﻣﻼﻳﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺟﺎﺯﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺗﻤﻰﺑﺎﻻﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﭘﻠﻮﺗﻮﻧﻴﻮﻡ ﻭ ﭼﺎﺷﻨﻰﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻧﻔﺠﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺭﺍ ﭘﻴﭽﻴﺪﻩﺗﺮ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮ ﻣﻰﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 1995‬ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺘﺎ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺳﻼﺡ ﺍﺗﻤﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺭﻓﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﺽ ﺑﺠﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﮕﻮﻳﻴﻢ ﻫﺮ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﻭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺭژﻳﻢ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬
‫ﺑﻤﺐ ﺍﺗﻢ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺭژﻳﻢ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻛﻤﻚ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻭ ﻣﺘﺤﺪﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰﺍﺗﻤﻰﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺣﺎﺻﻞﺍﺵ ﺩﻭ‬ ‫ﺭﺍﻫﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻜﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺸﻜﻞﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺷﻴﻌﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺍﻋﺶ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ :‬ﻳﻜﻰ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﻭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﺳﻌﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ‪15‬‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺩ ﺗﺎ ﺗﺴﻠﻂ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺮ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻧﻴﺰ ﺗﻴﻤﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ‬ ‫ﭼﻬﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺣﺮﻛﺖ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﺗﻤﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺳﻮﺭﻳﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﻭﻟﺖﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻭ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺟﺪﻳﺖ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻔﻰ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﮔﺎﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺟﺎﻳﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻧﮕﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺭﺳﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻳﻚ ﺧﺎﻭﺭ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻧﻮﻳﻦ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻴﺶ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﺴﻮ ﺑﺎ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﻣﻘﺎﻣﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺨﺶ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﺗﺎﻛﻴﺪ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺟﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺗﻰ ﻛﻮﭼﻚ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﻓﺮﻭﭘﺎﺷﻰ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ‬
‫ﺭﺳﻤﻰ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺎ ﺍﻋﻼﻡ ﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﻮﻉ ﻭ ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺑﺎﺯﺭﺳﻰﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺑﺎﺯﺭﺳﻰﻫﺎ ﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻳﺪﻩﺁﻝ ﺣﺘﻰ‬
‫ﺭﻭﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺁﻛﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺸﻢ ﻭ ﻧﻔﺮﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ ﻛﺎﺭ ﮔﻤﺎﺭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺎﺳﻔﺎﻧﻪ ﻧﺘﻮﺍﻧﺴﺘﻴﻢ ﺩﺷﻤﻦ ﺗﺎﺯﻩﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﺭﺑﺮﻯ ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮژﻯ ﻻﺯﻡ ﻫﺮ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﻙ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻔﺎﺩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺩ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ‬ ‫ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻯ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ‬
‫ﻫﻢﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﺣﺰﺏﺍﷲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻫﺰﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﻣﻮﺷﻚ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺧﻮﺩﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﺴﺎﺯﻳﻢ‪ .‬ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮ ﻋﺎﺩﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﺎ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺁﻣﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮﻯ ﻣﻨﻔﻰ ﺑﺮ ﻗﻮﺕ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺣﻤﺎﺱ ﻛﻤﻚ‬ ‫ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﻧﺸﺪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺛﺒﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﺪﻫﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻫﺮ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺗﺼﻮﻳﺮ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﻰ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﻭ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﺩﺍﻋﺶ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺟﻨﮓ ﺷﻴﻌﻪ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻯ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺭﺩﻩ ﺩﺷﻤﻨﺎﻥ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﺳﺮﻳﻊ ﻭ ﻗﺪﺭﺗﻤﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻧﺨﺴﺘﻴﻦ ﻫﺪﻑ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺿﻮﺡ ﻧﮕﺮﻳﺴﺖ ﻭ ﻋﻴﻨﻚﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺳﻨﻰ ﺟﻨﮕﻰ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺨﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻧﻘﺶ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭ ﮔﺮﻭﻩ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﭘﺲ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺭﺧﺪﺍﺩﻯ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﭼﻴﺪﻥ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺵﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺴﺖ ﺍﺯ ﭼﺸﻢ‬
‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻮﺭﻳﻪ‪ ،‬ﻋﺮﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻳﻤﻦ‪ ،‬ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺑﺮﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺧﻠﻴﺞ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ ژﻧﺮﺍﻝﻫﺎﻳﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﻰ‬ ‫ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ ٪60‬ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭﻯ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻓﻠﺴﻄﻴﻦ ﻭ ﭘﻴﺶﺗﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻓﻐﺎﻧﺴﺘﺎﻥ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﻰ ﭘﺮﻭﺍﺗﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻨﺎ ﺑﻪ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﭘﻴﺶﺗﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ ﺩﻭ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻘﻠﺐ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎ ﻭ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﻰ ﺑﺮ ﭼﻴﺪﻥ ﺁﻥ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎﻝ ﻫﻮﺷﻴﺎﺭﻯ ﺗﺎﻛﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺎﻥ ﻭ ﻫﻢﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺩﺧﺎﻟﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺕ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﺗﻼﺵ ﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﻋﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺤﺜﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻧﻴﺎﻣﺪﻩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﻭﻟﺖﻣﺮﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺚ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺧﻮﺑﻰ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﺤﺮﻳﻦ ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻋﺮﺑﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﺮﻛﺎﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺒﻜﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺗﺮﻭﺭﻳﺴﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺧﻄﺮ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺗﻤﻰﺟﺪﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﻳﻰ ﺑﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻣﺮ ﻭ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺗﻰ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﺰﺭﻳﻖ ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩﻫﺎ ﺩﻻﺭ ﺟﺎﻥ ﺗﺎﺯﻩﺍﻯ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﻭ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻣﻀﺎﻯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﻧﻔﻮ ِﺫ ﺍﻗﻠﻴﺖ ﺷﻴﻌﻪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺼﻰ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺼﻮﺭ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺫﻫﻦ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺯﺭﺳﻰ ﻭ ﻧﻈﺎﺭﺕ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ ﺳﺮﻳﻊ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻰﺑﺨﺸﺪ ﻫﺮﭼﻨﺪ ﺑﺨﺶ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﻭ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮﻩﺁﻣﻴﺰﺗﺮ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺷﻤﻦ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺳﻨﻰﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻮﻝ ﺧﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﻰ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻣﺎﺟﺮﺍﺟﻮﻳﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ‬ ‫ﻋﻈﻴﻤﻰﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺩﺭ ﮔﻠﻮﻯ ﻣﺎﻓﻴﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﭼﺎﻟﺸﻰ ﺧﻄﻴﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻞ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺜﺒﻴﺖ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺟﺪﻯ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻧﺸﻮﻧﺪ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎﻛﻴﺪ ﻛﺮﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻫﻤﺎﻫﻨﮓ‬ ‫ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻯ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺳﻨﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺳﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﺍﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﺯﺭﺳﻰﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﺮﺯﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﺘﻰ ﻓﺮﻭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺭﻓﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺸﻜﻞﺍﺻﻠﻰﺑﺎ ﺩﺳﺘﺎﻭﺭﺩﻫﺎﻯﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ‬
‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺭﺍﺳﺘﺎﻯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺧﻴﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﺎﻃﻞ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﻘﺎﻣﺎﺕ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﻳﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺭﻭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺁﻧﮕﺎﻩ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺩﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺍﻣﺎﻛﻦ ﻣﺸﻜﻮﻙ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺁژﺍﻧﺲ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻬﺒﻮﺩ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺑﻰ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺣﺴﻦ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺍﻋﺶ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﻋﺮﺍﺏ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺟﻠﺐ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺮﻓﻰ ﻧﻜﺮﺩﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻈﺮ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺣﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﺮ ﺁﻥ ﺗﺎﻛﻴﺪ ﺷﺪ‪» :‬ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺗﺤﺖ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺣﺴﺎﺱﺗﺮ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺗﻼﺵ ﻣﻰﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ ﺑﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻜﺘﻪ ﻛﻪ ‪ 24‬ﺭﻭﺯ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﻣﺨﺎﻟﻔﺎﻥ ﺭژﻳﻢ ﻭ ﺁﺯﺍﺩﻯﺧﻮﺍﻫﺎﻥ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﺟﺎﺯﻩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ )ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ؟(‬
‫ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ ﺭﻭﺯﺍﻓﺰﻭﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺍﻋﺶ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ‬ ‫ﺗﺎﻛﻴﺪ ﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﻮﻟﻰ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻰ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺳﻮﻡ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻮﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻃﻼﻉ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻋﻤﻼ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﺳﺘﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﺩﻣﻮﻛﺮﺍﺳﻰ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺪﻯ ﺑﻬﺒﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﺗﻤﻰﺍﺵ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎ‬
‫‪ 15‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﻫﻴﭻ ﺗﺨﻠﻔﻰ ﻧﻜﻨﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺑﺨﺸﺪ )ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﺻﻮﻝﮔﺮﺍﻳﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﻣﺮ ﺑﻌﻴﺪﻯ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻭ ﺩﺳﺖ ﻧﻴﺎﻓﺘﻨﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﻪ ﭘﮋﻭﻫﺶ ﻭ ﺁﺯﻣﺎﻳﺶ ﺑﭙﺮﺩﺍﺯﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺭﺍﻫﻜﺎﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻰ ﻓﺎﻳﺪﻩ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻋﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﺴﺘﺎﺩﮔﻰﺷﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺷﺪ‪«.‬‬
‫ﺩﺷﻤﻨﻰ ﺩﺍﻋﺶ ﺑﺎ ﺭژﻳﻢ ﺷﻴﻌﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﭻ ﻛﺲ ﺩﺭ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺟﺎﺯﻩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺗﺎ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺷﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺟﻮﺍﺏ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﻫﺮ ﭼﻴﺰ ﺣﺎﺋﺰ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺗﺎ ﺟﺬﺏ ﻧﻴﺮﻭ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮﻩ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺧﺘﻦ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻭ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﻣﺸﺨﺼﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻃﺮﺍﺣﻰ ﻭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﺯﺭﺳﻰﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺩﻗﺖ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﺻﻼﺡﻃﻠﺒﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺩﻋﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣ ِﺤﻖ‬
‫ﺳﻨﻰﻫﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺮﻭﻩ ﺁﺳﺎﻥﺗﺮ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻧﺘﺮﻳﻔﻴﻮژﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺗﺮ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺑﺰﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻫﻤﻪ ﭼﺸﻢﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﻭﺧﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﻧﺮﻣﺶ ﺗﺎﻛﺘﻴﻜﻰ‪ ،‬ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯ ﻗﻠﻤﺪﺍﺩ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻧﺴﺘﻦ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺩﺍﻋﺶ ﻗﻮﻯﺗﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺋﻤﺎ ﺑﺮ ﻛﻨﺘﺮﻝ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺗﺎﻛﻴﺪ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﭘﺎﻳﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻗﺎﺩﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﺷﻮﺩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﺎ ﮔﺬﺷﺖ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻭﺯ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‬
‫ﮔﺮﻭﻩ ﻣﺘﺨﺎﺻﻢ ﺑﺎ ﺭژﻳﻢ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺭژﻳﻢ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ‪ 15‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﺁﺗﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻧﺘﺮﻳﻔﻴﻮژﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺎ ‪20‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺯﺭﺳﻰﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻮﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻨﺪ(‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻣﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺍﺯ ﻫﺮ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﻭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺍﻯ ﻭ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺳﺮﻳﻊﺗﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺎ ﺟﺎﻳﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﻠﻴﻖ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﺻﺖ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻰﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﺎﻥ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺳﻨﻰﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﻟﺤﺎﻅ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻭ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰﻗﺪﺭﺗﻤﻨﺪﺗﺮ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺿﻮﺍﺑﻂ ﺭﻋﺎﻳﺖ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻣﻐﺎﻳﺮﺗﻰ ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍﻳﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺭژﻳﻢ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻭﺭﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻫﻴﭻ‬
‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪﮔﻰ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ ﺑﻨﺎ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﻤﺎﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻫﻴﭻ ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻠﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺍﻛﺰ ﺍﺗﻤﻰﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﺎ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺵ ﻧﻔﻮﺫ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻭ ﻋﻠﻤﻰﺩﺭ ﺍﺛﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻣﺎﻟﻰ ﻭ ﻋﻀﻮﻳﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺮﻭﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻣﺎﺟﺮﺍﺟﻮﻳﻰ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰﺧﻮﺩﺭﺍﺩﺭﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺩﻧﺒﺎﻝﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺩﻋﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺍﻯ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻫﻞ ﺳﻨﺖ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻭ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﮔﺬﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺗﻌﻠﻴﻖ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻫﻢﭘﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﻏﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎﺭﺗﻰ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﻰ ﺷﻚ ﺣﺰﺏﺍﷲ‪ ،‬ﺣﻤﺎﺱ‪ ،‬ﺭژﻳﻢ ﺍﺳﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺭﺳﻤﻰﺍﺵ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‪ ،‬ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻨﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﺑﻤﺐ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺁﻥ ﻭﻗﺖ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺣﻮﺛﻰﻫﺎﻯ ﻳﻤﻦ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺍﺑﺘﺪﺍ ﻏﺮﺏ ﻭ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﻗﻒ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﻧﺸﺎﻧﻪ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺗﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺸﻴﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﭘﺸﺘﻴﺒﺎﻧﻰ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﻫﺮ ﭼﻪ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺑﺮﭼﻴﺪﻥ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺍﺗﻤﻰﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺗﺎﻛﻴﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﭘﻴﻮﺳﺘﻦ ﮔﺮﻭﻩﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﺑﺎ ﺧﺒﺮ ﺷﻮﻳﻢ؟ ﺍﺯ ﭼﻪ ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭﻯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻨﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻴﻤﻪ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺎﺧﻴﺮ‬
‫ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺩﺭﮔﻴﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻮﺭﻳﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻒ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﻗﺪﺭﺗﻤﻨﺪﺗﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺑﻰ ﻧﺼﻴﺐ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﻣﺎﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺖﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻤﺐ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ‬
‫ﺩﺍﻋﺶ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻰ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ؟ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺍﺳﺘﺪﻻﻝ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﻏﺮﺏ ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻣﻨﺪ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﻯ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻧﻴﻮﻡ ﻏﻨﻰ ﺷﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻋﻰ ﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﺻﻠﻰ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺒﺎﺭﺯﻩ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺍﻋﺶ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺖ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ؟ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻛﺲ ﭘﺎﺳﺨﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻥ ﺗﺎﺯﻩ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻭ ﺭﻫﺎﻳﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺗﺎﺧﻴﺮ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻯ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻭﻳﮋﮔﻰ‬
‫ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﻯ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﻭ ﺩﺳﺘﻴﺎﺑﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺻﻒﺁﺭﺍﻳﻰ ﻣﺤﻜﻢﺗﺮ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﭘﺮﺳﺶﻫﺎ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺭﺍﺳﺘﺎﻯ ﺗﻘﻮﻳﺖ ﺧﻮﺩ ﭼﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺭﻭﻥ ﻣﺮﺯ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪:‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 2031‬ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻮﻓﻘﻴﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻒ( ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻋﻈﻴﻢ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻭ‬
‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻣﻴﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 2015‬ﺍﻣﻀﺎء‬ ‫ﭼﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﺠﻢ ﻏﻨﻰﺳﺎﺯﻯ‪ ،‬ﻋﺪﻡ ﺑﺮ ﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭﻯ‬
‫ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺛﻤﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬ ‫ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﮔﺬﺍﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ ﻧﺨﺴﺘﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺫﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﻛﺎﻓﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻔﺤﻪ ‪15‬‬ ‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬﺍﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻋﺎﻗﻼﻧﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺑﻤﺐ‬
‫*ﻧﻮﻳﺴﻨﺪﻩ‪ :‬ژﻧﺮﺍﻝ ﻳﺎﻛﻮﻑ ﺁﻣﻴﺪﺭﻭﺭ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮﻯ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺏ( ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻛﺎﺭﺑﺮﻯ ﺭﺁﻛﺘﻮﺭ ﺁﺏ‬
‫*ﻣﻨﺒﻊ‪ :‬ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﺑﮕﻴﻦ‪ -‬ﺳﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﮕﻴﻦ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻮﺍﻧﺎﻳﻰ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺷﻜﺎﻑ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﻭ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ‬
‫*ﺗﺮﺟﻤﻪ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ‪ :‬ﻣﺤﺴﻦ ﺑﻬﺰﺍﺩ ﻛﺮﻳﻤﻰ‬ ‫ﺭژﻳﻢ ﻳﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﻯ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻫﻴﺖ ﺭژﻳﻢ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﭘﻠﻮﺗﻮﻧﻴﻮﻡ‬
‫*ﺑﻴﻮﮔﺮﺍﻓﻰ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺗﻰ ﻧﻮﻳﺴﻨﺪﻩ‪ :‬ژﻧﺮﺍﻝ ﺍﺭﺷﺪ )ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﻩ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ( ﻳﺎﻛﻮﻑ‬ ‫پ( ﻳﻚ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺭﺳﻰ ﺩﻗﻴﻖ ﻭ‬
‫ﺁﻣﻴﺪﺭﻭﺩ ﻋﻀﻮ ﺍﺭﺷﺪ ﻫﻴﺌﺖ ﻋﻠﻤﻰ ﮔﺮگ ﻭ ﺁﻥ ﺭﻭﺷﺎﻧﺪﻟﺮ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺟﻠﻮﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﺑﮕﻴﻦ‪ -‬ﺳﺎﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﺸﺎﻭﺭ ﭘﻴﺸﻴﻦ ﺍﻣﻨﻴﺖ ﻣﻠﻰ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺑﺪﺍﻥ ﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﻫﻢﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﻣﺸﺎﻭﺭ ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﻭﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻭ ﻋﻀﻮ ﻫﻴﺌﺖ ﻋﻠﻤﻰﻣﺮﻛﺰ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺩﻫﻪ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﻠﺐﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺟﻴﻨﺴﺎ ﮔﻤﻮﻧﺪﺭ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺩﻓﺎﻉ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﮋﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻭ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪ 36‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﺩﺭ ﭘﺴﺖﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺭژﻳﻢ ﻣﺘﺨﺎﺻﻢ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﻟﺤﻈﻪﺍﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺳﺘﻮﺭ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﺭﺗﺶ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﻭ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺕ ﺩﻓﺎﻉ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﻓﺮﻣﺎﻧﺪﻩ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﻜﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﺑﻮﺩ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪﺭﻭﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺍﻋﺘﺪﺍﻟﻴﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺷﻨﮕﺘﻦ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻤﻊﺁﻭﺭﻯ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺴﺮﻯ ﻭ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺕ ﺩﻓﺎﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﺪﻳﺮ ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ‬ ‫ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﻧﺪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺗﺶ ﻭ ﺭﺋﻴﺲ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﺭﺗﺶ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻧﻈﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻟﺖﻣﺮﺩﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺗﺮﻭﺭ‪ ،‬ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ‪ ،‬ﺩﺧﺎﻟﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻣﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﺭﺍ ﻋﻤﻼ ﺍﺯ ﮔﺮﺩﻭﻧﻪ‬
‫ﻏﻴﺮ ﺭﺳﻤﻰﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺣﺬﻑ‬
‫ﻛﺮﺩﻧﺪ ﭼﺮﺍ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺍﺳﺮﺍﺋﻴﻞ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬