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‫ﺟﻤﻌﻪ ‪ 6‬ﺗﺎ ﭘﻨﺠﺸﻨﺒﻪ‪ 12‬ﻓﺮﻭﺭﺩﻳﻦﻣﺎﻩ ‪1395‬ﺧﻮﺭﺷﻴﺪﻯ‬

‫ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺸﺪﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺍﻣﭗ ﻭ ﺩﺍﻋﺶ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻣﻴﺎﺭ ﺑﻬﺮﻧﮓ ‪ -‬ﺩﺭ ﺁﺳﺘﺎﻧﻪﻯ‬
‫ﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥﻫﺎ ﻭ ﮔﺴﺴﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺧﻄﺮ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﻮﺭﻭﺯ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺯﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﻏﺎﺯﻳﻦ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ‬
‫ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻋﻀﻮ ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩﻳﻪ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺭﺷﻴﺪﻯ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﺯﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎ ﻭ‬
‫ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺑﻠﻮﻙ‬ ‫‪©Reuters‬‬ ‫ﺭﺳﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺒﻰ ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ‬
‫ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻯ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ‬ ‫»ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻟﻰ ﻛﻪ ﮔﺬﺷﺖ« ﻭ »ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺁﺳﻴﺐﭘﺬﻳﺮﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﭽﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻯ ﺗﺮﺍﻣﭗ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺗﺎﺯﻩ ﻧﺸﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﺭﻛﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮﻯ ﺑﺎﻻ‬ ‫ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﺑﺮﻳﺘﺎﻧﻴﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩﻳﻪ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ« ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎﺭﻧﺎﻣﻪﻯ ﺧﺒﺮﻯ‬
‫ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﻳﻚ ﺷﻮﻙ ﻣﻨﻔﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻭ ﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺩ ﺩﻳﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺩﺷﻮﺍﺭ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻛﻤﻰ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻚﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﻣﻰﭘﺮﺩﺍﺯﻧﺪ ﻳﺎ ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﺮﻭﺭﻳﺴﺘﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ﺭﻳﺴﻚ ‪ 12‬ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺗﺮﻛﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻣﺼﺮ )ﺣﻤﻠﻪ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮﻯ ﺑﺎﻻ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﺎﺭ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﻳﻮﻧﺎﻥ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻯ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻯ ﺗﺮﺍﻣﭗ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﻮﺍﭘﻴﻤﺎﻯ ﺭﻭﺳﻰ( ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻓﺮﺍﻧﺴﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﺍﺕ ﻃﻮﻻﻧﻰ‬ ‫»ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻛﻮﻧﻮﻣﻴﺴﺖ« ﻫﻔﺘﻪ‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺍﻭ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﻧﺪﻭﻧﺰﻯ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻬﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈﻪﻛﺎﺭ ﺑﺮﻳﺘﺎﻧﻴﺎ ﻭ‬ ‫ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ‪ 10‬ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﺑﺰﺭگ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺭﻳﺴﻚ ‪ 15‬ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻰ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ 2016‬ﺭﺍ ﻣﻨﺘﺸﺮ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻥ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﺭﺯ ﻭ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺪﻫﻰ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﻫﺮ ﻛﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ‬
‫ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺩﮔﺮﮔﻮﻧﻰﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻰ‬
‫ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﺰﺭگ‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭ ﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻛﻮﻧﻮﻣﻴﺴﺖ‬
‫ﺁﻥ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺎﻩ‬ ‫ﺭﺗﺒﻪﺑﻨﺪﻯ ﺭﻳﺴﻚ ﻫﺮ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ‬
‫ﺩﺳﺎﻣﺒﺮ ﻓﺪﺭﺍﻝ ﺭﺯﺭﻭ )ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛﺰﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ‪ 25‬ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬
‫ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤﺪﻩ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ( ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﺑﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺮ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺩﻫﻪ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺑﺮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺍﻣﭗ ﺭﻳﺴﻜﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ‪ 12‬ﺩﺭﺟﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬
‫ﺩﻻﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺠﺎﻣﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﺗﺮﺍﻣﭗ‬
‫ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮﻯ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭ ﺍﻣﻨﻴﺖ‬
‫ﺑﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻃﻼ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺧﻄﺮﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺭﻣﻐﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻨﺒﻪﺍﻯ‬ ‫ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﻧﮕﺎﻩ ﺍﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺁﺯﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﭼﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﻭ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺗﻀﻌﻴﻒ ﺍﺭﺯﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺤﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻫﻤﺴﺎﻳﻪ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺪﻫﻰ ﺍﺭﺯﻫﺎﻯ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺤﺪﻩ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻫﻤﭽﻮﻥ ﻣﻜﺰﻳﻚ‬
‫ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﺰﺭگ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻳﻚ ﺩﻧﻴﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻛﻮﻧﻮﻣﻴﺴﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺭﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺗﺮﺍﻣﭗ ﺭﺍ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬
‫ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ ﺷﻮﺩ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭﺟﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻛﻮﻧﻮﻣﻴﺴﺖ ﺗﺎﻛﻴﺪ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻯ ﺗﺮﺍﻣﭗ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ‬
‫ﺭﻳﺴﻚ ‪ 16‬ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻼﺭﻯ ﻛﻠﻴﻨﺘﻮﻥ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺪﺍﺧﻠﻪ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻭﻛﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻯ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺍﻭ ﻫﺸﺪﺍﺭ‬

‫ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﻳﻚ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺳﺮﺩ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﺎﻻ‬
‫ﺧﻄﺮﻯ ﺟﺪﻯ ﻣﺤﺴﻮﺏ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻕ ﻛﺮﻳﻤﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺣﻤﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪:2016‬‬
‫ﻫﻮﺍﻳﻰ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﻮﺭﻳﻪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻻ ﺭﻓﺘﻦ‬
‫ﺗﻨﺶ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﻭ ﺗﺮﻛﻴﻪ ﻭ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﻘﻮﻁ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺯﻫﺎﻯ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﻭ ﺍﻭﻛﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﻧﻔﺖ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺷﻮﻙ‬
‫ﺳﺮﺩﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺑﺎ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﭘﺲ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻔﺖ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺳﺮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺭﻗﻢ ﺯﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬
‫ﺗﺸﺪﻳﺪ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﻭ ﻏﺮﺏ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﭼﺎﻟﺸﻰ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﻭﻛﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺳﻮﺭﻳﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﻯ ﺍﺑﻌﺎﺩﻯ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰﺗﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻻ ﻭ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﻩﻯ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰﺍﺵ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ‬
‫ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻣﺒﺎﺭﺯﻩ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﻃﻴﻮﻥ‬ ‫ﭼﺎﻟﺸﻰ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬
‫ﺍﺳﻼﻣﮕﺮﺍ ﻭ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﻯﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ‬

‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥﻫﺎﻯ ﺯﻳﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﻴﻄﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻛﻮﻧﻮﻣﻴﺴﺖ ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ‪ 12‬ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻯ ﺗﺮﺍﻣﭗ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﮔﻔﺘﮕﻮﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩﻳﻪ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭ ﻃﺮﻑ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻨﺪﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻛﻮﻧﻮﻣﻴﺴﺖ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ‬
‫ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖﻫﺎﻯ ﭘﺎﺭﻳﺲ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﻳﻮﻧﺎﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ ﻳﻮﺭﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﺧﻄﺮ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺳﻄﻮﺡ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﺳﺖ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺻﻼﺡ‬ ‫ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺷﻮﻙ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻰ‬
‫ﺑﮕﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﺑﺎ ﺭﻳﺴﻚ ‪16‬‬ ‫ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﻳﻮﻧﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪﻯ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﺩﻯ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻭﻋﺪﻩﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﻧﻔﺖ ﺩﺭ ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺟﺪﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﻫﺎﻯ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ‬ ‫ﺣﻮﺯﻩﻯ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ ﻳﻮﺭﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﻬﺎﺩﻯ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻳﻮﻳﺪ ﻛﺎﻣﺮﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﻧﺨﺴﺖﻭﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺮﻳﺘﺎﻧﻴﺎ‬ ‫‪ 2016‬ﺗﺎ ‪ 2020‬ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺯﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﺛﺮﺍﺕ ﺁﻥ ﻣﻨﺤﺼﺮ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﺮ ﺗﺤﻮﻻﺕ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﻭ ﺳﻮﺭﻳﻪ ﺑﺨﺶﻫﺎﻯ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻯ ﺍﺯ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻗﻰ ﻣﺎﻧﺪﻥ ﺑﺮﻳﺘﺎﻧﻴﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩﻳﻪ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻨﺶﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ‪،‬‬
‫ﺳﺮﺩﻯ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﻏﺮﺏ ﺑﺎ ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺳﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩﻳﻪ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﻧﮕﺎﻩ ﺍﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺁﺯﺍﺩ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺧﺎﻙ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺼﺮﻑ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺭﻓﺮﺍﻧﺪﻭﻡ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﮔﺬﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻕ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻣﻮﺍﻧﻊ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ‬
‫ﻳﻮﻧﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩﻳﻪ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ ﺑﺮ ﺳﺮ ﺑﺪﻫﻰﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﭼﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺩﻩﺍﻧﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺮﻭﻩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﭼﻬﺮﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﻭ ﺭﺳﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪﺕ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻔﺖ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﺷﺎﺭﻩ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻭ ﻛﻤﻚﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ‪ ،‬ﺧﻄﺮ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺎ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﺗﻨﺪﺭﻭ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﭼﺎﻟﺸﻰ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻃﺮﻓﺪﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﻗﻰ ﻣﺎﻧﺪﻥ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﻧﻔﺖ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺭﻓﺘﻦ‬
‫ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﮔﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺑﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﻼﻣﮕﺮﺍ ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺟﻨﺠﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻣﺎﻫﻴﺖ ﭘﺮﺍﻛﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺮﻭﻩﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩﻳﻪ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ‬ ‫ﺭﻳﺴﻚ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺩﻳﻮﺍﺭ ﻛﺸﻴﺪﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻭ‬ ‫)ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺱ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ – ﺩﺍﻋﺶ(‬ ‫ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥﻫﺎﻯ ﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﻃﻰ ﻭ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺭﻳﺴﻚ ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ‪4‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻛﻮﻧﻮﻣﻴﺴﺖ‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻜﺰﻳﻚ ﻫﺮ ﻛﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺎﺭﺕ ﺑﺮ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺳﺨﺖ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻇﻬﻮﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻋﺘﺮﺍﺽ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﭼﻬﺮﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮﮔﺬﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺭﻳﺴﻚ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻮﻧﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺟﻬﺎﺩﻯ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﻭﻥ ﺣﺰﺏ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈﻪﻛﺎﺭ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻤﺮﻛﺰ ﺑﺮ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺸﺪﻳﺪ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻗﻄﻌﻴﺖ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻧﺸﺪﻩ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﻤﻼﺕ ﺗﺮﻭﺭﻳﺴﺘﻰ ﭘﺎﺭﻳﺲ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺗﺠﺎﻭﺯ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﭼﻴﻦ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﭼﻴﻦ ﻣﻰﺩﺍﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﻳﻮﻧﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻯ ﺗﺮﺍﻣﭗ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺮ ﻭ ﻧﻴﺠﺮﻳﻪ ﻧﻴﺰ ﭼﺎﻟﺸﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﺴﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺷﺐ ﺳﺎﻝ ﻧﻮ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻟﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺧﻄﺮﻯ ﺟﺪﻯ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺯ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﻳﻮﺭﻭ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻰﺛﺒﺎﺗﻰ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺕ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﻳﺮﻩﻯ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﺩﮔﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﻛﻔﻪﻯ ﺗﺮﺍﺯﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩﻳﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻯ ﺟﻨﻮﺏ )‪(SCS‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻻ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺠﺎﻣﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻼﺭﻯ ﻛﻠﻴﻨﺘﻮﻥ ﻛﻢ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﺷﺪﻩ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﺩﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰﺗﺮ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﺣﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻭﺧﺎﻣﺖ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﭼﻴﻦ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻰ ﻭ ﺑﺪﻫﻰﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﺎﻧﻜﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﻳﻮﺭﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺍﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺗﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻛﻮﻧﻮﻣﻴﺴﺖ ﺑﺮ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺍﺳﺎﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺳﻨﮕﻴﻦ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮﻯ ﺑﺎﻻ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﺑﺨﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺭﻓﺘﻦ ﺑﺪﻫﻰ ﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﺭﻧﻤﺎﻯ ﺭﻭﺷﻨﻰ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﻳﻮﻧﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺎﻧﻊ ﻛﻨﮕﺮﻩ ﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻣﺎﺭﭘﻴﭻ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺎ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻳﺘﺎﻧﻴﺎ ﻛﻪ ﭘﻨﺠﻤﻴﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﺰﺭگ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ ﮔﺴﺘﺮﻩﺍﻯ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ‬
‫ﺑﺨﺶ ﺳﻬﺎﻡ )ﻛﻪ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ ‪240‬‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺿﺮﺑﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﺮ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﺩﻯ ﻭ ﺍﺛﺮ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻌﺪﻭﺩ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﭼﻴﻦ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﺟﺰﻳﺮﻩ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ( ﺍﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻳﻚ ﺭﻛﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎﻳﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺭﻭ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺩﺭ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻯ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻰ ﻭ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﺑﺨﺸﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﻫﺎ ﺭﻭﺑﺮﻭ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺭﺷﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺑﺎﻻﻳﻰ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺧﺮﻭﺝ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﺴﻠﺤﺎﻧﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﺑﻪ ﺧﺮﻭﺝ ﻳﻮﻧﺎﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩﻳﻪ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺗﻨﺸﻰ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﭼﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﻛﺮﻩ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻫﻤﻪ ﻃﺮﻓﻴﻦ ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻰ ﻭ ژﺍﭘﻦ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ‬
‫ﻭﺭﻭﺩ ﭼﻴﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﻮﺭﻭ ﺭﻳﺴﻚ ‪ 15‬ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻯ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤﺪﻩ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺑﺮ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻯ‬ ‫ﺗﺸﺪﻳﺪ ﻓﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻛﻢ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﺤﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺧﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻭﻳﮋﻩ ﺑﺨﺶ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ﺭﻳﺴﻚ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺮژﻯ ﻭ ﻓﻠﺰﺍﺕ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺑﮕﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺣﻮﺯﻩ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩﻳﻪ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﺩﺭ ﭼﻴﻦ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨﺤﺼﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﭼﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﺪﻫﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ ﻳﻮﺭﻭ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺗﻨﺶ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺧﻂ‬
‫ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﺭﻛﻮﺩ ﻃﻮﻻﻧﻰ ﻣﺪﺕ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﭘﻨﺎﻫﻨﺪﮔﻰ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ‪ 8‬ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺑﻪ ﭼﺎﻟﺸﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬
‫ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻰ ﻭ ﺑﺨﺸﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ‬ ‫ﻭ ﺗﺸﺪﻳﺪ ﻋﻮﺍﻗﺐ ﺣﻤﻼﺕ ﺗﺮﻭﺭﻳﺴﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺣﻤﻼﺕ ﺗﺮﻭﺭﻳﺴﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺁﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎﻳﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﺗﺤﺖ‬ ‫ﭼﺎﻟﺶ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺣﻮﺯﻩ‬ ‫ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﻬﺎﺩﻯ ﻭ ﺑﻰﺛﺒﺎﺗﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻣﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺍﺗﺤﺎﺩﻳﻪ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ‬ ‫ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻯ ﺣﺎﺷﻴﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻯ‬
‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺩ‪ .‬ﻧﺎﺭﺿﺎﻳﺘﻰ ﺍﺣﺰﺍﺏ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪﺭﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﻭﭘﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ‬ ‫ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻳﺴﻚ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺵ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺭﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻭ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺍﺣﺰﺍﺏ ﺭﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﻓﺮﺍﻃﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺑﺮ ﺧﻼﻑ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﭼﻴﻦ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺭﻳﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ‪ 20‬ﺑﻪ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺟﺒﻬﻪ ﻣﻠﻰ ﻓﺮﺍﻧﺴﻪ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺧﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‬
‫ﺟﻨﻮﺏ ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ‪ 8‬ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﭼﻴﻦ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

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