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                                                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﺟﻤﻌﻪ ‪ 9‬ﺗﺎ ﭘﻨﺠﺸﻨﺒﻪ‪ 15‬ﻣﺮﺩﺍﺩ ﻣﺎﻩ ‪1394‬ﺧﻮﺭﺷﻴﺪﻯ‬

‫ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﺑﺎ ﺍﻃﻤﻴﻨﺎﻥ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ‬                                               ‫ﮔﻔﺘﮕﻮ ﺑﺎ ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﻓﺮﻫﺎﺩ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺎﻥ‪:‬‬                                                              ‫»ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺟﺎﻣﻊ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻡ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ« ﻳﺎ »ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻡ«‬
‫ﮔﻔﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻧﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ‬                                                                                                                                            ‫ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺍ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﻓﺼﻠﻰ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ‬
‫ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻞ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺁﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬    ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺻﻠﺢ؛ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺣﻔﻆ ﻭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬                                                                                               ‫ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﻭ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﺁﺯﺍﺩ ﺭﻗﻢ ﺑﺰﻧﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﮔﺮ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻳﻚ ﻛﺎﻻ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‬                                                                                                                                            ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﻓﺼﻠﻰ ﻧﺎﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﺑﺎ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩﺍﻯ ﻧﺎﺭﻭﺷﻦ ﻭ‬
‫ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﻧﺴﺒﻰ ﻛﻤﺘﺮﻯ ﻣﺘﺤﻤﻞ ﺷﻮﺩ‪،‬‬                                                        ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ؟‬                                                                            ‫ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺯﺍﻭﻳﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺗﻰ‬
‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﭘﻴﺶﻓﺮﺽﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎﺗﻰ ﻭ ﻧﺴﺒﺘﺎً‬
‫ﺑﺪﻳﻬﻰ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ‬       ‫ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺩﻻﺭ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﭘﺮﻭﻓﺴﻮﺭ‬               ‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﻓﺮﻫﺎﺩ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺎﻥ‬                ‫ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻰ ﻭ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﺑﺰﺍﺭ‬                      ‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺁﺯﺍﺩ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﺑﺮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ‬        ‫ﺍﺳﺘﻴﮕﻠﺘﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ ﺍﻏﺮﺍﻕ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﺭ‬                                                                  ‫ﺟﻨﮓ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬         ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻨﺠﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻧﮕﺎﻫﻰ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴﻴﺮ ﻣﻨﺘﻬﻰ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺒﺎﺩﻝ ﻛﺎﻻ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ‬       ‫ﺑﺮﻛﻨﺎﺭ ﺷﺪ ﻭ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﻛﻞ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﺑﻴﻦ‬            ‫ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺩﻻﺭ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﺯﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ‬                                                       ‫ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺟﺎﻣﻊ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻴﻢ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻢﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﺗﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﻪ‬      ‫‪ 50‬ﺗﺎ ‪ 60‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺩﻻﺭ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﺯﺩﻩ ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ‬       ‫ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬      ‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻭﺍﻳﻞ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬     ‫ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻋﻼﻡ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻃﺮﻑﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﻩ ﺑﺮ‬
‫ﺩﺳﺖﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪.‬‬       ‫ﭘﺮﻭﻓﺴﻮﺭ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﮕﻠﺘﻴﺰ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺘﺎﺏ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻗﺖ‬         ‫ﻳﻚ ﻓﺮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺣﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬        ‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺭﺷﺪ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ‬        ‫ﺳﺮ »ﺑﺮﺟﺎﻡ«‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﺪﻯ ﺷﺮﻣﻦ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻭ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﺍﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬     ‫ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺎﺕ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺭﺍ ﻃﺒﻘﻪﺑﻨﺪﻯ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ‬          ‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﮔﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻛﻨﻴﻢ‬           ‫‪) 1982-1980‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭﺻﺪﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬           ‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺕ ﺍﻣﻮﺭ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻪ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤﺪﻩ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺍﺛﺒﺎﺕ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻮﺍﻓﻘﺖ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻧﺎﻥ‬    ‫ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﻰﺯﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻰ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺩﺭ‬            ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺭﻓﺘﻪ ﺩﺭ‬        ‫ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻰ( ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ‪ 9‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ‪ 5/9 ،‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ‬        ‫ﺩﺭ ﺟﻠﺴﻪﺍﻯ ﺑﺎ ﺣﻀﻮﺭ ﺧﺒﺮﻧﮕﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻟﺤﻈﺎﺗﻰ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﻭﺍژﺓ ﻛﻠﻴﺪﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﺗﺒﺎﺩﻝ‬      ‫ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ‪ 60‬ﺑﺮﺍﺑﺮ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭ ِﺩ ‪ 50‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ‬   ‫ﺟﻨﮓ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻔﺖ ﺗﺎ ﻫﺸﺖ ﺗﺮﻳﻠﻴﻮﻥ‬        ‫ﻭ ‪ 10‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺩﺭ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ‪4/21‬‬       ‫ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻋﻼﻡ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﻴﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﻣﻮﮔﺮﻳﻨﻰ ﻭ‬
‫ﺁﺯﺍﺩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ‬        ‫ﺩﻻﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻭ ﻣﻰﮔﻮﻳﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻃﻰ ﺟﻨﮓ‬             ‫ﺩﻻﺭ )ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﻫﻔﺖ ﺗﺎ ﻫﺸﺖ ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺩﻻﺭ(‬      ‫‪ 8/38 ،‬ﻭ ‪ 2/40‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻰ ﺁﻥ‬       ‫ﻇﺮﻳﻒ ﺧﺎﻃﺮﻩﺍﻯ ﻧﻘﻞ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻭ ﮔﻔﺖ‪» :‬ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺳﺪﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬          ‫ﻋﺮﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻫﺮ ﺳﻪ ﻣﺎﻩ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ 50‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ‬       ‫ﻣﻰﺭﺳﺪ‪ .‬ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻨﮕﻴﻨﻰ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻً‬          ‫ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺩﺍﺩ‪ .‬ﺭﺷﺪ ﺭﻭ ﺑﻪ‬         ‫ﺁﺧﺮﻳﻦ ﺟﻠﺴﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺁﺧﺮﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺯ ﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﺍﺕ ﻭﻳﻦ‬
‫ﻓﻘﻂ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‬           ‫ﺩﻻﺭ ﺧﺮﺝ ﻣﻰﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﺮ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺭﻗﻢ ﺳﻪ ﻫﺰﺍﺭ‬         ‫ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺟﻨﮓ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻧﻤﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻭﻟﻰ‬        ‫ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻧﺸﺎﻧﮕﺮ‬      ‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﻪ ﺧﺒﺮﻧﮕﺎﺭﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺗﺎﻕ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺩﻳﺪﮔﺎﻩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺗﺒﺎﺩﻝ ﺑُﺮﺩ‪-‬ﺑُﺮﺩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ‬    ‫ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺩﻻﺭ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﻛﻤﻰ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬       ‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺻﻠﺢ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻰ‬     ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻰ ﻭ‬         ‫ﺷﺪﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺷﺪ ﻫﺮ ﻛﺪﺍﻡ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺯﺭﺍﻯ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻪ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﺘﺄﺳﻔﺎﻧﻪ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺍﻏﻠﺐ ﻣﺎﻧﻊ‬        ‫ﺗﺼﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻗﻢ ﺳﺮﺳﺎﻡ ﺁﻭﺭ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻴﻢ‬                                                   ‫ﻳﺎ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺍﻯ ﺟﺎﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬       ‫‪ 5+1‬ﺑﮕﻮﻳﻨﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﺍﺕ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﭼﻪ‬
‫ﺍﺻﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﺳﺖ‪.‬‬         ‫ﻃﺒﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪﺍﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻳﻚ‬                             ‫ﺟﻨﮓ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻤﺎﺭ ﻣﻰﺁﻳﺪ‪.‬‬                                                    ‫ﻣﻌﻨﺎﻳﻰ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ… ﺁﺧﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻫﻤﻪ ﻧﻮﺑﺖ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻯ ﻛﺎﻻﺋﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ‬        ‫ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺩﺍﺩﻩﺍﻡ )ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ‬                                                                      ‫ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﻨﮕﻰ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬         ‫ﺟﺎﻥ ﻛﺮﻯ ﺭﺳﻴﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻭ ﺍﺯ ﺟﺎ ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ‬
‫ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‬    ‫‪ 948‬ﺩﻻﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺩﻻﺭﻯ ‪ 3000‬ﺗﻮﻣﺎﻥ(‪،‬‬         ‫‪‬ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺍﺗﻤﻰ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﺑﻪ‬                ‫ﺍﺯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﻼﻥ ﻛﻪ ﺑﮕﺬﺭﻳﻢ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ‬          ‫ﻣﻰﮔﻮﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻭﻗﺘﻰ ‪ 22‬ﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﺑﻮﺩﻡ ﺑﻪ ﺟﻨﮓ‬
‫ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﺻﺎﺩﺭ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﺪﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ‬          ‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﮔﻔﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺳﻪ ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺩﻻﺭ‬            ‫ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﻭ‬              ‫ﺍﺳﻠﺤﻪﺳﺎﺯﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺭﻭﻧﻖ ﻣﻰﻳﺎﺑﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﺎ‬       ‫ﺭﻓﺘﻢ‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺑﻐﺾ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻫﻤﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺗﺒﺎﺩﻝ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑ ًﻼ ﺳﻮﺩﺑﺨﺶ ﻣﻤﺎﻧﻌﺖ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬         ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﻫﻤﺔ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺪﺕ ﺑﻴﺶ‬      ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺳﺎﻝ ﺍﺧﻴﺮ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬         ‫ﺩﺭ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻭﻝ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ‬     ‫ﺟﻠﺴﻪ ﺳﻜﻮﺕ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺟﺎﻥ ﻛﺮﻯ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻐﺾ‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﺎﺭﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﻀﻞ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﺋﻰ ﻛﻪ‬                                                    ‫ﺍﺻﺮﺍﺭ ﺑﺎﺭﺍﻙ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻦ ﺭﻭﺯ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﺯﻯﺍﺵ‬    ‫ﺳﻮﺩﻣﻨﺪﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻧﻔﺖ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺮژﻯ‪،‬‬     ‫ﺩﺭ ﮔﻠﻮ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺭﻓﺘﻢ ﻭ‬
                                                      ‫ﺍﺯ ‪ 141‬ﺳﺎﻝ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻛﺮﺩ!‬        ‫ﺩﺭ ﺭﻗﺎﺑﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎﺗﻰ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ‬         ‫ﻣﺎﺷﻴﻦﺁﻻﺕ‪ ،‬ﻛﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﻯ‪ ،‬ﺯﻳﺮﺳﺎﺧﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻰ‬          ‫ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﻓﻬﻤﻴﺪﻡ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻤﻰﺧﻮﺍﻫﻢ ﻫﺮﮔﺰ‬
       ‫ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻤﻜﺶ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺩﻳﺪﻩ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬           ‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﻛﻤﺮﺷﻜﻦ‪ ،‬ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‬            ‫ﺩﻳﭙﻠﻤﺎﺳﻰ ﻭ ﻫﻢﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺩﻭﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﻪ‬             ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭﻯ ﺩﺭ‬    ‫ﺑﻪ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﺑﺮﻭﻡ‪ .‬ﻛﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻫﻢ ﺻﺎﺩﻕ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬        ‫ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻣﻰﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﻭﺯ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻳﻰ‬        ‫ﺑﺨﺼﻮﺹ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﻰﺭﺳﺪ ﺍﻳﻦ‬            ‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻛﺎﺭ )ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﺍﺭﺗﺶ ﺑﻪ‬    ‫ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻣﻌﻨﺎﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺣﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ‬
‫ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﻓﺮﻳﺪﻭﻥ ﺧﺎﻭﻧﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺧﻴﺮ ﺧﻮﺩ‬         ‫ﺟﻠﻮﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻭﻳﮋﻩ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﺍﻳﻦ‬         ‫ﺯﺑﺎﻥ ﺍﻣﺮﻭﺯ ﺧﺮﻳﺪﺍﺭ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺯﺑﺎﻥ ﺟﻨﮓ‬        ‫ﺟﺎﻯ ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻯ( ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻣﺜ ًﻼ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻳﺖ ﺭﺍﺩﻳﻮ ﻓﺮﺩﺍ ﺑﻪ ﭼﺎپ ﺭﺳﻴﺪﻩ‪،‬‬         ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺑﺮ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬    ‫ﺣﺘﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤﺪﻩ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺁﻳﺎ‬         ‫ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﻔﺖ ﺩﺭ‬               ‫ﺩﻳﭙﻠﻤﺎﺳﻰ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺵﻫﺎﻯ ﺻﻠﺢﺁﻣﻴﺰ«‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﻀﻞ ﻓﺮﺍﻳﻨﺪ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺷﺪﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ‬        ‫ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﻏﻴﺮ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻗﺮﺿﺔ‬       ‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﭘﺮﻭﻧﺪﻩ ﺍﺗﻤﻰ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ‬             ‫ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ 3/3‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺑﺸﻜﻪ ﺩﺭ‬        ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺁﻳﺎ ﺳﺨﻨﺎﻥ ﺟﺎﻥ ﻛﺮﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺭﻭﻯ‬
‫ﮔﻮﻧﻪﺍﻯ ﺳﺎﺩﻩ ﻭﻟﻰ ﺟﺎﻣﻊ ﻭ ﻓﺮﺍﮔﻴﺮ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬          ‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ 18000‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ ﺩﻻﺭﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ‬            ‫ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺳﺘﺎﻯ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺻﻠﺢ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ‬          ‫ﺭﻭﺯ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ﻓﻘﻂ ‪ 8/0‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ‬        ‫ﻧﻮﻉﺩﻭﺳﺘﻰ ﻭ ﺗﻨﻔﺮ ﺍﻭ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺍﺳﺖ؟ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺣﺮﻓﻪﺍﻯ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻮﺍﻧﻊ ﻭﺭﻭﺩ‬         ‫ﺑﻪ ﺳﺨﺘﻰ ﻣﺎﻳﻞ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﺮﺽ ﺑﻴﺎﻓﺰﺍﻳﺪ‪.‬‬        ‫ﻛﺮﺩ؟ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﻭ ﺻﺎﺣﺒﺎﻥ‬           ‫ﺑﺸﻜﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺭﻭﺯ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻫﻢ ﺍﻭﺿﺎﻉ‬    ‫ﭘﺮﺳﺸﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺻﺤﻨﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻞ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﺢ‬      ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻫﺎ ﺻﺮﻓﺎً ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﺧﺎﻟﺖ‬      ‫ﺍﺻﻠﻰ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﻣﻰﺩﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺷﺮﻭﻉ ﻳﻚ‬              ‫ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﺒﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻧﻔﺖ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ‬   ‫ﺩﻭﺭﺍﻥ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﻤﺪﺍﺭﻯﺍﺵ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﻭ‬
‫ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻰ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ‬          ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻏﻴﺮ‬              ‫ﺟﻨﮓ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﭼﻪ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﺭﺍ‬           ‫ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻨﮓ )ﻭ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻧﻘﻼﺏ( ﺍﺯ‬        ‫ﭘﺮﺳﻴﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﻤﺎﻳﻞ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺭﻋﺎﻳﺖ ﻗﻮﺍﻧﻴﻦ ﻭ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻄﻰ‬       ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﻫﻨﻮﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺟﺎ ﻧﮕﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻯ‬        ‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ‬        ‫ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪ 25‬ﺗﺎ ‪ 30‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻰ‬          ‫ﻣﺘﺤﺪﻩ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭ »ﻋﺮﺍﻗﻰ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ«‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺳﻮﺩﻣﻨﺪﻯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻀﻤﻴﻦ‬              ‫ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻫﺮ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻧﺎﺁﺭﻣﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺧﺎﻭﺭﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﻼﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ‬      ‫ﻓﺸﺎﺭ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﺭﻭﻯ ﺣﻞ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺭﺍﻩ‬      ‫ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ‪ 12‬ﺗﺎ ‪ 18‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﻠﻰ‬     ‫ﺩﻻﻳﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺭﻭﺷﻨﻰ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬          ‫ﺩﺭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻔﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﻰﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺳﺘﺎ‬                                                                                               ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﻛﻴﻬﺎﻥ ﻟﻨﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮﺍﻍ ﺩﻛﺘﺮ ﻓﺮﻫﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻞ ﺁﺯﺍﺩﻧﻪ ﻭ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺍﺟﺒﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻗﻬﺮ‪،‬‬    ‫ﺍﺳﺘﻴﮕﻠﻴﺘﺰ ﺍﺩﻋﺎ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻛﻪ ﺟﻨﮓ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﻧﻘﺶ‬                              ‫ﺩﻳﭙﻠﻤﺎﺳﻰ ﮔﺬﺍﺷﺘﻨﺪ؟‬                                ‫ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬      ‫ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺎﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺎﺩ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺍﻳﺎﻟﺘﻰ ﻛﺎﻟﻴﻔﺮﻧﻴﺎ ﺭﻓﺖ ﺗﺎ‬
‫ﺧﺸﻮﻧﺖ ﻳﺎ ﺗﻬﺪﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺩﻭ ﺳﻮﻯ‬         ‫ﻣﻬﻤﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻔﺖ ﺍﻳﻔﺎ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻛﻪ‬          ‫‪-‬ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﻰﺭﺳﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺁﻗﺎﻯ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ ﺳﻌﻰ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‬       ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﺍﻥ )ﭼﻪ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﻭ ﭼﻪ‬             ‫»ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺻﻠﺢ« ﻭ ﺩﻻﻳﻞ ﮔﺮﺍﻳﺶ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺕ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﻫﺎ‪،‬‬            ‫ﺍﺯ ﺑﺸﻜﻪﺍﻯ ‪ 23‬ﺩﻻﺭ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ‬          ‫ﻛﻪ ﺣﺘﻰﺍﻟﻤﻘﺪﻭﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﻭﺯ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺟﻠﻮﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬      ‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ( ﻛﻪ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯ‬          ‫ﺑﺰﺭگ ﺟﻬﺎﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻳﭙﻠﻤﺎﺳﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﻭﻯ ﺑﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﮕﻮ‬
‫ﺟﻨﺲ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺖ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﻛﺎﻻ ﻣﻮﺍﻓﻘﺖ‬       ‫‪ 140‬ﺩﻻﺭ ﺭﺳﻴﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺍﻧﺮژﻯ‬          ‫ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻫﺪﻑ ﭼﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺁﻗﺎﻯ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ‬      ‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻧﻔﺖ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ‬
‫ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺩﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺗﺨﻠﻒ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‪،‬‬     ‫ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺩﺭﻭﻥﺩﺍﺩﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺩﺭ‬         ‫ﻭ ﭼﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻫﺮ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﻤﺪﺍﺭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﻫﺪﻓﻰ‬           ‫ﭼﺸﻤﮕﻴﺮﻯ ﺑﻪ ﺿﺮﺭ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‬                                     ‫ﺑﮕﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﺳﺎﺯﮔﺎﺭﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ‪ ،‬ﺳﺘﻴﺰ ﺍﻳﺪﺋﻮﻟﻮژﻳﻚ‪ ،‬ﻳﺎ‬        ‫ﻫﺮ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯﺩﻳﺎﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻔﺖ ﺑﻪ‬        ‫ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻰ ﻭ ﺍﺧﻼﻗﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﺯ‬      ‫ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﻣﻰﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺍﺳﻠﺤﻪﺳﺎﺯﻯ‬
‫ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺑﮕﻴﺮﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﻫﺮ‬             ‫ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬        ‫ﺩﻳﺪﮔﺎﻩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺻﻠﺢ‪ ،‬ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺷﻚ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺟﻨﮓ‬        ‫ﻧﻴﺰ ﻟﺰﻭﻣﺎً ﺟﻨﮓ ﺳﻮﺩﻣﻨﺪﻯ ﻧﻤﻰﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻻﺍﻗﻞ‬        ‫‪‬ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﻭﺭﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ »ﺟﻨﮓ«‪،‬‬
‫ﻳﻚ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‪ -‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ‬            ‫ﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﻰﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬         ‫ﺍﺯ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺕ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ‬          ‫ﺩﺭ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺁﻥ ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺪﻯ ﻛﻪ ﻻﺯﻡ ﻣﻰﺩﺍﻧﻨﺪ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ‬          ‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺩﺍﻣﻦ ﻣﻰﺯﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﭘﻮﺷﺶ‬            ‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻓﺎﻉ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﻩ ﺑﺎ‬     ‫ﺿﺮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺭ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ‬         ‫ﺳﻮﺩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺻﺎﺣﺒﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻳﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻛﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺪﻭﺩ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﻪ‬      ‫ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻰ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﻳﮕ ِﺮ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩﻩ‬          ‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﻫﺴﺘﻪﺍﻯ ﻣﻜﺮﺭﺍ ﺗﺄﻛﻴﺪ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻛﻪ‬    ‫ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺟﻨﮓ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﻣﺠﺒﻮﺭ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﻋﺎﻡ ﺁﻥ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺍﻧﺴﺪﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‪/‬‬                                                   ‫ﮔﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎﻯ ﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﻩ‪ ،‬ﺟﻨﮓ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻰ‬      ‫ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻗﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻭ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻨﮓ‬         ‫ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﺰﺭگ ﻧﻔﺘﻰ ﻭ ﺍﺳﻠﺤﻪﺳﺎﺯﻯ‬
‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻧﺴﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ‬                      ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬         ‫ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤﺪﻩ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ‬          ‫ﻗﺎﺩﺭ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﺮﺽﻫﺎ ﻧﺒﻮﺩﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻋﺪﻡ‬
‫ﺟﻨﮓ ﻫﻢ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻰ ﻧﻔﺲ ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻁ‬         ‫ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻯ‬       ‫ﺗﺤﻤﻞ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺳﺮﺳﺎﻡﺁﻭﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺭﺍ‬          ‫ﺑﺎﺯﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻗﺮﺽﻫﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ‬      ‫ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻘﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺭﺍ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺗﻌﻴﺒﺮ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ‬       ‫ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺳﻨﮕﻴﻦ ﺟﻨﮓ‪ ،‬ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﻩ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺮﺍﺗﺐ‬       ‫ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﭘﺮﻭﻓﺴﻮﺭ ژﻭﺯﻑ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﮕﻠﺘﻴﺰ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﻧﺪﺓ ﺟﺎﻳﺰﻩ‬  ‫ﺭﻭﺳﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻋﺮﺑﺴﺘﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻛﻮﻳﺖ ﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎﻳﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺭﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰﺷﺪﻥ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‬      ‫ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﻰﺭﺳﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺁﻗﺎﻯ ﺍﻭﺑﺎﻣﺎ‬       ‫ﻧﻮﺑﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝ ‪ ،2001‬ﺩﺭ ﻛﺘﺎﺏ‬         ‫ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻳﺎ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﻛﻤﻚ ﻣﻰﺭﺳﺎﻧﺪﻧﺪ‪،‬‬        ‫ﺑﺰﺭگ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺭﻣﻐﺎﻥ ﻣﻰﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰﺷﺪﻥ ﭘﻴﻮﺳﺘﻪ ﺭﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ‬         ‫ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎ‪،‬‬     ‫»ﺟﻨﮓ ﺳﻪ ﺗﺮﻳﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺩﻻﺭﻯ« ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺩﺧﺎﻟﺖ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻫﻢ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ‪،‬‬                                                      ‫ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﺍﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ ﺭﺍ ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ﺳﻪ ﺗﺮﻳﻠﻴﻮﻥ‬            ‫ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩﻫﺎ ﺩﻻﺭ ﺿﺮﺭ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺭ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪.‬‬  ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺷﻤﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺨﻨﺮﺍﻧﻰﻫﺎﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺗﺒﺎﺩﻝ‪ ،‬ﺗﻔﺎﻫﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺳﺘﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﻭ ﻫﻢ‬             ‫ﮔﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬      ‫)ﺳﻪ ﻫﺰﺍﺭ ﻣﻴﻠﻴﺎﺭﺩ( ﺩﻻﺭ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻌﺘﻘﺪ‬   ‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺻﻠﺢ‪،‬‬
‫ﮔﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻧﺴﺪﺍﺩ ﺁﻥ ﺭﺍ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ‬                                                       ‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺒﻠﻎ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺧﻴﻠﻰ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﻫﻢ‬       ‫ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ )ﺑﻪ ﻭﻳﮋﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻳﺮﺳﺎﺧﺖﻫﺎﻯ‬          ‫ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺻﻠﺢ ﻭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺭﺷﺪ‬
‫ﮔﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺍﻭﻝ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ‬        ‫‪‬ﺁﻳﺎ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺭﺍ‬              ‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻓﺮﺍﻣﻮﺵ ﻧﻜﻨﻴﻢ ﻭﻗﺘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ‬   ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ( ﻭ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝﺯﺍﺋﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻣﺘﺄﺳﻔﺎﻧﻪ‬
‫ﺑﻬﺮﻩﻣﻨﺪ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﻭﻟﻰ ﺑﺎ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺩﻭﻡ ﻫﺮ‬                                                 ‫ﻟﺸﻜﺮ ﻛﺸﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻧﺎﻥ ﻛﺎﺥ ﺳﻔﻴﺪ‬      ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺩﻭ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺟﻨﮓ‪ ،‬ﺭﺷﺪ‬           ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﺎ ﺟﻨﮓ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺘﻴﺪ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﺎ‬
                                            ‫ﻧﻮﻋﻰ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺗﻠﻘﻰ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺁﻳﺎ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺮ‬          ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺭﺍ ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 100‬ﻳﺎ ‪200‬‬          ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺭﺍ ُﻛﻨﺪ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻛﻠﻰ ﺳﺎﻗﻂ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
         ‫ﺩﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﻣﺘﻀﺮﺭ ﻣﻰﮔﺮﺩﻧﺪ‪.‬‬                                                                                                ‫ﺑﻤﺒﺎﺭﺍﻥﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩ ﻭ ﭘﻰﺩﺭﭘﻰ ﺷﺒﻜﻪﻫﺎﻯ‬            ‫ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﺩﻫﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭼﻪ ﺷﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ‪ ،‬ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﻳﻚ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‬         ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﻭ ﺳﻮﻯ ﻣﺎﺟﺮﺍ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﮔﻴﺮﻯ‬                                                      ‫ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺧﻄﻮﻁ ﺭﺍﻩﺁﻫﻦ‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﺩﻩﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﻕ‬
‫ﻣﺴﻠﻤﺎً ﺑﻪ ﺿﺮﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪،‬‬                                                                                                 ‫ﻭ ﺍﻧﺮژﻯ‪ ،‬ﺑﻴﻤﺎﺭﺳﺘﺎﻥﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻰ‬           ‫ﺍﺳﺖ؟ ﺁﻳﺎ ﺭﺷﺪ ﭘﺎﻳﺪﺍﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺟﻬﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻌﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ‬      ‫ﺍﺳﺖ؟ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻯ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﻭﺭﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻓﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ‬                                                     ‫ﺯﻳﺮﺳﺎﺧﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻰ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ ﻛﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﺔ‬
‫ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﻣﻰﮔﺮﺩﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﻰﺭﻭﺩ‪.‬‬                                                                                                   ‫ﺑﻨﻴﺎﺩﻳﻦ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﻰﺑﺮﺩ‪.‬‬                          ‫ﺟﻨﮓ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ؟‬
‫ﺍﻣﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﻢ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ‬         ‫ﻧﺎﺷﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻓﻠﺞ ﺷﺪﻥ‬                                                            ‫ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻً ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﻨﮓﺯﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﺔ‬        ‫‪-‬ﺑﺎ ﺗﺸﻜﺮ ﺍﺯ ﻓﺮﺻﺘﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺩﺍﺩﻳﺪ ﺗﺎ‬
‫ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ؛ ﻧﻈﻤﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﻫﺮ‬                                                                                                    ‫ﺑﺎﺯﺳﺎﺯﻯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺯﻳﺮﺳﺎﺧﺖﻫﺎ ﻋﺎﺟﺰ ﻣﻰﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ‬           ‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺻﺤﺒﺖ‬
‫ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﺘﻘﻼﻝ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻋﻼﻡ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﻫﺪﻑ‬         ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﺭﺍ ﭘﺎﻯ‬                                                        ‫ﻭ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﻭﺳﺖ ﻭ ﻣﺘﺤﺪ ﻛﻤﻚ‬            ‫ﻛﻨﻴﻢ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻋﺮﺽ ﻛﻨﻢ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﺳﻮﺩﻣﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺑﻨﻴﺎﺩﻳﻦﺍﺵ ﺻﺮﻓﺎً ﺣﻔﻆ ﻭ ﺍﺭﺗﻘﺎء ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﻠﻰ‬                                                                                               ‫ﺑﮕﻴﺮﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎﺯﺳﺎﺯﻯ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪.‬‬       ‫ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺁﻥ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺍﻣﻨﻴﺖ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﺠﺎ ﻛﻪ‬          ‫ﻣﻴﺰ ﻣﺬﺍﻛﺮﻩ ﻛﺸﺎﻧﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺁﻳﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬                                                    ‫ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺗﻠﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻰ ﺩﺭ‬           ‫ﺟﻨﮓ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺍﺝ‬
‫ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺒﻨﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻮﺍﺭ‬                                                                                             ‫ﺟﻨﮓ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﺳﺎﺯﻧﺪﺓ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﻰﺑﺮﺩ‪.‬‬     ‫ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ ‪ 1940‬ﺗﺎ ‪،1945‬‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻫﺮ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻯ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺗﺤﻤﻴﻞ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﺑﻪ‬          ‫ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻯ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤﺪﻩ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‬                                                           ‫ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ ﺗﻠﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺍﻕ‬       ‫ﺍﻳﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﺘﺤﺪﻩ ﺁﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺩﻫﻪ‬
‫ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﺭﺍ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺁﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺗﻀﺎﺩ ﻳﺎ ﺗﺨﺎﺻﻢ‬                                                                                              ‫ﺟﻤﻌﺎً ﺑﺎﻟﻎ ﺑﺮ ﻳﻚ ﺗﺎ ﻳﻚ ﻭ ﻧﻴﻢ ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻧﻔﺮ‬      ‫ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺴﺎﺩ ﺑﺰﺭگ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ )‪The‬‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻰﺩﺍﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﻛﻪ‬         ‫ﺍﺯ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﺭﻯ ﺍﺳﻼﻣﻰ ﺿﺮﺭ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ‬                                                           ‫ﻗﺮﺑﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﻮﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﺧﻼﻗﻰ‬      ‫‪ (Great Depression‬ﺑﻴﺮﻭﻥ ﺁﻣﺪﻩ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﮔﺰﻳﻨﺔ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺳﺘﺪ ﺑﺎ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﺭﺍ ﻛﻪ‬                                                                                                  ‫ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻳﻚ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪،‬‬          ‫ﺗﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﺩﺭﺩﻧﺎﻙ ﺁﻥ ﻛﺴﺎﺩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻮﺩ‬
                                                                             ‫ﺍﺳﺖ؟‬                                                    ‫ﻭﻟﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﭘﺮﺩﺍﺧﺖ ﻏﺮﺍﻣﺖ ﻣﺮگ‬          ‫ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺑﻴﻦ‬
     ‫ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﻰﺩﺍﻧﺪ‪.‬‬      ‫‪-‬ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﻰ ﺍﺧﺺ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎ ِﺩ‬                                                     ‫ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺣﻮﺍﺩﺙ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﺵﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺭﺯﺵﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯ‬              ‫ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ ‪ 1930‬ﺗﺎ ‪ 1933‬ﺭﺷﺪ ﻣﻨﻔﻰ )ﻭ‬
‫ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻫﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺿﺮﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬         ‫ﺻﻠﺢ‪ ،‬ﻣﻔﻬﻮﻡ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺭﺍ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ‬                                                      ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺯﻧﺪﮔﻰ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻛﻪ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ‬           ‫ﻣﻨﻔﻰ ﺩﻭ ﺭﻗﻤﻰ( ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﻭ ﻫﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺿﺮﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ‬         ‫ﻧﻮﻋﻰ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺗﻠﻘﻰ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻫﺮ ﭼﻨﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬                                                      ‫ﺟﺎﻥ ﻳﻚ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﻫﻔﺖ ﺗﺎ ﻫﺸﺖ‬         ‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺷﺮﻭﻉ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺭﺷﺪ‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺫﺧﺎﺋﺮ ﮔﺎﺯﻯ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩﺍﺭ‬        ‫ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻞ ﻭﺍژﻩ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﺤﻤﻴﻞ ﺗﻌﺮﻓﻪﻫﺎﻯ‬                                                                                                 ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﺍﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺟﻬﺖ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻯ ﺑﺰﺭﮔﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﺓ‬             ‫ﺗﺠﺎﺭﻯ )‪ (tariff wars‬ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ُﺧﺮﺩ‬                                                                                                  ‫ﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﺭﺷﺪﻯ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﻭ ﺩﻭ ﺭﻗﻤﻰ )ﺑﻴﻦ ‪15‬‬
‫ﮔﺎﺯﻯ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺫﺧﻴﺮﺓ‬       ‫ﻭﺍژﻩ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺩﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺭﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ )‪price‬‬                                                                                                ‫ﺗﺎ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ‪ 20‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ – ﺑﺴﺘﮕﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ(‪،‬‬
‫ﻧﻔﺖ ﺧﺎﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﻣﻘﺎﻡ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﻡ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬       ‫‪ (war‬ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻰ‬                                                                                                   ‫ﻧﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺴﺎﺩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻧﺠﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺷﻚ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺿﺔ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻯ‬             ‫ﺭﻭﺍﺑﻂ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎﻯ‬                                                                                                     ‫ﺩﺍﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺗﻮﺭﻣﻰ ﺑﻰﺳﺎﺑﻘﻪ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﮔﺮﺍﻧﺒﻬﺎ ﻫﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻔﻊ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﻫﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻔﻊ‬         ‫ﻧﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻞ ﺑﺮﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻰﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬                                                                                                   ‫ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﺧﺮ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺩﻭﻡ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺑﻴﻜﺎﺭﻯ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﻧﻴﺎ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻋﻴﻦ ﺣﺎﻝ‬          ‫ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻً ﮔﻔﺘﻪ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻥ ﺭﺍ‬                                                                                                  ‫ﺍﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ )ﻛﻪ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻩ ﺳﺎﻝ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺣﺪﻭﺩ ‪25‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺯﺳﺎﺯﻯ‬         ‫ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺎ ﻫﻢ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ‬                                                                                                ‫ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ( ﺑﻪ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ‪ 2‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺭﺳﻴﺪ ﻭ ﭘﻴﺮ‬
‫ﺯﻳﺮﺳﺎﺧﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ‬                                                                                                                                                    ‫ﻭ ﺟﻮﺍﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍ ِﺭ ﮔﺮ ِﻡ ﺍﺷﺘﻐﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﺍﺕ ﺻﻨﻌﺘﻰ ﻭ ﺭﻭﻧﻖ ﻛﺸﺎﻭﺭﺯﻯ ﻭ ﺁﺑﻴﺎﺭﻯ‬                                                                                                                                             ‫ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻝ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺑﻮﺩﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺑﻰﺳﺎﺑﻘﻪ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﻣﺒﺮﻡ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻫﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ‬                                                                                                                                             ‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺼﻮﺭ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ‬
‫ﻭﺭﻭﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻋﺮﺻﺔ ﺗﺠﺎﺭﺕ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﻭ‬                                                                                                                                              ‫ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻣﺘﺄﺳﻔﺎﻧﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻫﻤﻜﺎﺭﻯ ﻭ ﺑﻬﺮﻩﻭﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ‬                                                                                                                                             ‫ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺟﻨﮓ ُﻛﺮﻩ )ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ ‪ 1951‬ﻭ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﺳﺘﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬                                                                                                                                            ‫‪ (1952‬ﺑﺎﺯ ﻫﻢ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﭼﻮﻥ‬
‫ﻭ ﺍﺗﺨﺎﺫ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺑﺎ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ‬                                                                                                                                               ‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﺩﻭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺩﻭ‬
‫ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ ﺍﻭﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻞ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻤﺎﺕ‬                                                                                                                                                                            ‫ﺭﻗﻤﻰ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺁﻥ ﻋﻜﺲﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ‪.‬‬                                                                                                                                                     ‫ﺁﻧﭽﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻏﻔﻠﺖ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻭﻇﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻧﺎﻥ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺧﻂ ﻣﺸﻰ‬                                                                                                                                                    ‫ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ ﺑﻠﻜﻪ ﻧﺸﺎﻥ‬                                                                                                                                              ‫ﺳﺮﺷﺎﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺭﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺩﻥ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﺋﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ‬                                                                                                                                                 ‫ﺷﺪﺕ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻛﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﻋﻮﺽ‪ ،‬ﻣﺨﺎﺭﺝ‬
‫ﻭ ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻭ ﺗﺮﺳﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻋﻮﺍﻗﺐ ﻭ‬                                                                                                                                              ‫ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺎﺷﻴ ِﻦ ﺗﻮﻟﻴ ِﺪ‬
‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎﻯ ﭘﺮﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻭ ﺧﺎﻧﻤﺎﻥﺳﻮﺯ ﺑﺮﻭﺯ‬                                                                                                                                                 ‫ﺍﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻭ ﺍﻗﺴﺎﻡ ﺳﻼﺡﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﻨﮕﻰ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻛﺮﺩﻩ‬
                                                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﺑﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﭘﺲ ﺳﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﺻﻠﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺭﺷﺪ‬
      ‫ﺟﻨﮓ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺿﻮﺡ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﻪ ﭼﻪ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﺍﻯ؟ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ‬
                                                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﺟﻨﮓ‪ ،‬ﻣﺼﺮﻑﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﺠﺒﻮﺭ ﺑﻮﺩ )ﻭ ﻫﺴﺖ(‬
                                                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﻛﻪ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻟﻰ ﺑﻜﺎﻫﺪ ﺗﺎ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ‬
                                                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﺍﺕ ﺟﻨﮕﻰ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬
                                                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﺑﮕﻴﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺩﺭ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﻨﮓ‬
                                                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﺩﻭﻡ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﻣﻰﺑﻴﻨﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ ﺭﺷﺪ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ‬
                                                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﻛﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎﻯ ‪ 1945‬ﺍﺯ ‪ 6‬ﺗﺎ ‪ 10‬ﺩﺭﺻﺪ‬
                                                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﺑﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﻃﻰ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺩﻭﻡ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ‪ 3‬ﺩﺭ‬
                                                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﺻﺪ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ ﻭ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺑﻌﻀﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﻝﻫﺎ‬
                                                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﺭﺷﺪ ﻣﻨﻔﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺩﺍﺷﺖ‪ .‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‬
                                                                                                                                                                                  ‫ﺭﻓﺎﻩ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﮔﺮﻭ ﻗﺪﺭﺕ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻯ‬
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